Home teams are currently 34-35, and I expect that trend to continue. Home-field advantage in baseball is the smallest of any sport. During this crazy season, I will look to back big underdogs for the next three weeks. We have no idea how pitchers will rebound from start to start until we see them make six or seven, which will account for 70 percent of the 60-game schedule. Boston also looks to avenge two home losses earlier this week. Nathan Eovaldi of the Red Sox is a solid pitcher who is capable of keeping his team in the game.

If you've paid attention to my picks over the last couple of years you already knew this was coming. Jacob deGrom is pitching, and we are firmly #FadeTheMets when deGrom starts. Nothing personal, Jacob. Just business.

Nathan Eovaldi is 2-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 10 career starts against the Mets. He pitched well against the Orioles last week, but that lineup is much easier than the Mets. Jacob Degrom pitched five innings last week and he should be good to go at least six today. The Red Sox have a serious problem with their pitching staff, so if the Mets can get a lead going into the bullpen they should be good.

Even though Mets ace and two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom is set to take the mound and carries a career-high scoreless-inning streak of 28 into Wednesday, 70 percent of simulations by my model has the total going Over in this matchup against the Red Sox and hard-throwing Nathan Eovaldi as the interleague series shifts from Boston to New York. The Over is 6-0-1 in Boston's last seven games and has hit in two of deGrom's past three starts despite blanking the opponent.