On Saturday, for the third time this season, Pirates rookie Jameson Tailon aims to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers. Currently, Tailon appears to be in peak form as in his last six starts he has yielded just eight runs total. Brewer's starter Jimmy Nelson did end a six-game losing streak in his last start against a hot-Colorado lineup. Yet, Saturday I expect Tailon's familiarity against the Brewers to be the difference in a Pirates win.

The wOBA model is back on the Pirates this afternoon, with Jameson Taillon vs. Jimmy Nelson at Miller Park. Taillon has been very sharp over the last month, and against quality opponents. Taillon took the loss while only giving up two earned runs one month ago against the Brewers, but his offense is in much better shape to pick him up Saturday vs. Nelson. Nelson finally has very even splits for the first time in his career, unfortunately for him they aren't very good -- with a .345 wOBA allowed. The Pirates have enough power and speed to make this a long night for Nelson. I have the Pirates winning this game in 63 percent of simulations, so I'm comfortable laying the price.