Year of the Underdog: NFL Betting Public Flailing In Face of Parity

As players in baseball’s postseason spray champagne to toast each series win this month, operators of Las Vegas sportsbooks were in a similar mood Sunday night.

There were no corks popped, at least openly, yet the bean-counters and their bosses felt elated after another profitable day with the NFL.

Underdogs not only covered in all but two of 12 games, but they went 8-4 straight-up. The Thursday night underdog also won outright.

The public generally leans toward favorites against the spread, and heavy favorites tend to be popular for those who engage in parlays and teasers.

So the dominance of the ‘dogs assured the betting parlors of finishing in the black.

Underdogs already were treating the books well this year, having entered Week 6 at 10 games above .500. The gap doubled in the span of five days and helped partly atone for a drubbing in 2016, when favorites wound up with a nine-game advantage, according to SportsInsights, which monitors action at many books.

Plus, on totals wagers, the Over, which the public often prefers, whipped the Under by 17 games a year ago.

A glance at the standings offers clues to explain the bettors’ confusion this season. Twenty-seven teams own records between 2-4 and 4-2.

”Parity has always been our friend,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of Race & Sports Operations at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “That’s what we are seeing in the league right now. Elite teams haven’t really separated themselves from the pack.”

CBS SPORTS: PETE PRISCO'S NFL POWER RANKINGS

The spread movements on two decisive favorites Sunday tell the tale.
Atlanta (versus Miami) and Denver (vs. Giants) opened in the vicinity of minus-10 and got pushed by game time to two-touchdown picks.

SportsInsights reports that 63 percent of the plays in each of those matchups was on the Falcons and Broncos. Both were beaten outright.

“When the Dolphins upset the Falcons, that set the tone,” Kornegay said.

ADVANCED COMPUTER MODEL PICKS EVERY WEEK 7 NFL GAME

Yet the game attracting the most wagering interest drew a much smaller line that barely budged during the week. A whopping 77 percent supported Green Bay at minus-3 against Minnesota. The Vikings knocked out quarterback Aaron Rodgers and won straight-up.

Other ATS losers that crossed up the bulk of bettors were Oakland against the Los Angeles Chargers (69 percent), New England against the New York Jets (58 percent) and Chicago against Baltimore (58 percent). L.A. and the Bears took their games straight-up, too.

As tilted as last weekend was, the third week of the season ended even better for the sportsbooks, according to Jason Simbal, VP of risk management at CG Technology, which operates several books in Las Vegas. Outright upsets by underdogs Washington (over Oakland) and Buffalo (over the Broncos) spurred the outcome.

“It is shaping up to be a very good year, but not the best” for the company, said Simbal, harkening to the 2013 season as superior.

He does not expect the trend to cause a seismic shift by the public toward teams receiving points.

“The lines get adjusted when the ‘bad’ teams play well,” he said, meaning the projected spreads shrink slightly. “That historically entices the public to bet on [favorites] even more.”

At the same time, Kornegay observed, a more informed wagering populace makes recent big “wins” by the sportsbooks unusual.

“The betting public is more educated than ever,” he said. “It’s a sharper crowd than we saw 10 or 20 years ago.

“People are still attracted to the perceived better team. I’m not sure if that will ever change, but it has leveled off.”

Mindful that 2016 was a year to forget for the books with pro football, Kornegay is aware that the winds can shift again.

“We’re not doing a celebratory dance yet,” he said Monday afternoon. “We know things can change in a heartbeat.”

A few hours later, Indianapolis appeared primed to extend the underdog trend, only to yield a seemingly comfortable lead late to Tennessee, which covered in improbable fashion.