Yankees vs. Orioles Friday MLB odds, props: Aaron Judge +360 to homer in return, Gerrit Cole takes mound as AL Cy Young favorite for first time in weeks

One could easily argue that Friday night is the most important game of the season for the New York Yankees. Not only do they open a big series at the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, but Aaron Judge is expected to make his long-awaited return from the injured list. On top of that, Gerrit Cole takes the mound as the AL Cy Young betting favorite for the first time in weeks. The Yankees are short favorites at Caesars Sportsbook.

The reigning American League MVP, Judge has been sidelined since early June 3 with a sprained right big toe. Judge showed how valuable he is to the Yankees in a 6-3 win at Dodger Stadium that day with a solo homer and a spectacular catch in right field – but that's how he got injured. He came down hard and crashed his foot against the gate to the visiting bullpen at the end of his sprint into the right field corner.

New York was 35-25 and in third place in the AL East after that victory, six games out of first but holding a wild card spot. The Yankees are now 54-48, last in the AL East, eight games out of first and 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot. The Bombers are +170 to make the playoffs at DraftKings and -200 to miss. Most believe Aaron Bone will fired if they fail to make the postseason, even with Judge missing so much time. Many Yankees beat writers think the tough 10-game stretch the team is about to embark on (three in Baltimore, three vs. Tampa Bay, four vs. Houston) will decide the team's fate. 

Overall, New York is 24-29 without Judge in 2023 and has averaged 3.8 runs per game, which is Kansas City-esque. With Judge, the Yanks are 30-19 and average 5.0 runs per game. He may not have repeated as AL MVP simply because Shohei Ohtani has been ridiculous, but Judge was off to another fine start at .291 with 19 homers, 40 RBI and a 1.078 OPS in his 49 games. If you extrapolate that to 162 games, that's 63 homers and 132 RBI. In his record-setting 2022 campaign (157 games), he hit .311 with 62 homers and 131 RBI.

For Friday, Judge is +360 to go yard against young Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top prospects in MLB but who hasn't faced New York. Judge is batting .263 with three homers in 19 at-bats this year vs. Orioles pitching.

The only possible individual MLB award winner on the 2023 Yankees is likely Cole, who for all the hype surrounding him and money he has made in his career has never won a Cy Young. He's currently the +150 leader. He had been favored early in the year for a bit but then fell out of that spot. Cole (9-2, 2.78 ERA, 144 Ks) has benefited from injuries to one-time favorites Jacob deGrom of Texas (out for season), Framber Valdez of Houston (back now; +600 to win Cy) and Shane McClanahan of Tampa Bay (also healthy now and the +425 second favorite).

One thing Cole has been this season and over the course of his career is incredibly durable. He recorded his 2,000th career strikeout on May 23 vs. Baltimore, becoming the third-fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach the milestone (in terms of games and innings pitched). Cole has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 21 outings. That May 23 start vs. the Birds at Yankee Stadium was his lone this year in the series. Cole allowed five runs in five innings of a no-decision.

For Friday night, Cole is +130 to record a win and has over/under totals of 6.5 strikeouts, 18.5 outs recorded and 2.5 earned runs. 

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