Week 7 felt like the first week of the 2023 NFL season in which injuries weren't the predominant storyline coming out of the weekend's action. That doesn't mean no one got hurt -- the Packers lost several players throughout their loss to the Broncos, for example -- but for the most part it appears we escaped without much actionable injury news that will affect the Week 8 lines.
The two prominent players who didn't play as much as expected were part of weird situations, and while it seems like neither will have a long-term impact, you never know. Bijan Robinson was apparently dealing with some sort of illness that limited him to around 10 snaps and only one touch in the final minutes of Atlanta's win over the Buccaneers. Unless there's some lingering team discipline angle that comes up, he seems almost certain to be back in a key role next week.
The other, Deshaun Watson, was apparently medically cleared to return to action after exiting in the first half to be tested for a concussion -- but just didn't. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said after the game he felt holding Watson out was "the right thing in that moment," and we'll see if Watson reinjured his shoulder after he undergoes further testing. But you have to wonder if Watson would've been sent back out on the field had he started better than 1-for-5 with his latest horrendous interception.
I found the line move up to Browns -3.5 after Watson was confirmed to be starting the game to be wildly off-base. With my valuation of the Colts' home-field advantage, Cleveland would have to be six points better than the Colts on a neutral field for the line to make sense. For me, that would mean putting the Browns as two points better than an average team, and we just haven't seen that type of success on offense with Watson under center aside from a great game against an awful Titans pass defense. If I was confident Watson was fully healthy, I would've made that game Browns -1.5, but without that assurance I thought the game deserved to be pick 'em at best. Considering the Colts had a 2.4 yards per play edge in the game, they should've won convincingly.
So what to do with the Browns moving forward? I've had them as a -3 power rating team with P.J. Walker at quarterback, believing that the ineffectiveness of the offense outweighed how well the defense had been playing before Sunday. If you think that's unfair, consider how you value the Jets with a more functional offense behind Zach Wilson, or the Patriots prior to their string of defensive injuries. I'm willing to bump them up to a -1.5 rating and get them halfway back to average with the expectation that Watson will be able to play, but until I'm convinced he's healthy I can't get them back up to average. Once he looks healthy and like he's starting to become a net positive for the Browns, we can talk about putting Cleveland in positive territory in these power ratings.
If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.
Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 8? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 8 power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!
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