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Week 2 NFL power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, including Jets without Aaron Rodgers, for ATS picks

Get the edge over the sportsbooks in Week 2 and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines

By@rjwhite1Updated: Sep 12, 2023 2:16PM UTC . 3 min read

Week 1 in the NFL was a doozy, as it almost always is. The Lions, Rams and Buccaneers were among the teams to surprise in a positive way, while the Giants, Seahawks and Bengals are among those who need to turn things around quickly to meet preseason expectations. And then you have the Jets, who pulled off the upset against the Bills on Monday night but appear to have lost starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season after just one pass attempt.

While Zach Wilson pulled off the win on Monday, he's obviously a step down from Rodgers. But how much of a step down? We actually cover that every week in our QB Power Rankings feature, where Mike Tierney gives his tiered list of starting quarterbacks and I provide a QB2 rating for adjusting overall team power ratings against the spread if teams are forced to turn to the backup. In some cases that number is zero; who's to say Joshua Dobbs is worth any more to the spread than Clayton Tune? Sometimes the number is over a touchdown; imagine a Bills offense with Kyle Allen under center instead of Josh Allen.

For Rodgers, our initial number was -5 for the move to Wilson, with a few caveats. First, that was my number for the general market's valuation of the Jets, not my own, as I was already more pessimistic about the Jets with Rodgers after his performance last season. With the line for the Jets' Week 2 game sitting at Cowboys -3.5 before the Rodgers injury, you would expect the market to decide Cowboys -8.5 is the right number for this game.

If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.

Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 2? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 1 power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!

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