Week 13 NFL power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, including Panthers and Steelers post-coaching moves, for ATS picks
Get the edge over the sportsbooks in Week 13 and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines
When things aren't going your way as an NFL team, it's time to start figuring out whose to blame. Over the past week, three teams have decided the blame falls to parts of the coaching staff, with one head coach, one offensive coordinator and one defensive coordinator dismissed. Let's take a quick look at each and determine how the moves should affect our valuations of each team moving forward when considering how to project the spreads in each of their games.
The big news on Monday was the firing of Frank Reich, along with assistant coaches Duce Staley and Josh McCown. Reich's Carolina tenure lasted just 11 games, two fewer than Urban Meyer in Jacksonville, though it's hard to say Reich is the worse coach of the two considering the success he's previously had in the NFL. Reich's dismissal also doesn't magically create more talent on offense to support rookie QB Bryce Young, and I fail to see how it'll improve the offense moving forward. Despite the lackluster performance last week, I've ticked the Panthers up a half-point in my power ratings as head-coaching changes are often accompanied by improved performance in the short-term, but mostly because the Carolina defense is actually playing better than people realize.
Last Friday, the Commanders said goodbye to defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio as they rank last in points allowed per game (29.2) while surrendering 28 touchdown passes on 423 attempts, which works out to a 6.6% touchdown rate that would be be best in the league if it had been accomplished by a single QB. Considering the Commanders dealt two of their best defenders before the trade deadline, it's not surprising the unit has gone from bad to worse, and Ron Rivera's background on the defensive side of the ball probably doesn't give us reason to expect we're going to see any type of philosophy change midseason. I knocked the Commanders down a half-point in my power ratings with Sam Howell back to struggling following a solid stretch where some speculated Washington may have found a franchise QB.
But it's not all doom and gloom. Early last week, the Steelers finally fired Matt Canada, their offensive coordinator since 2021 and the QB coach in 2020. Subsequently, the Steelers offense this past week delivered its first 400-yard performance since Week 2 of the 2020 season, a span of 58 games that almost fully encompasses Canada's tenure with the club. Now, the caveat is that the Bengals defense has been terrible this year, but while other Pittsburgh opponents like Houston, Jacksonville and Las Vegas haven't been quite as bad, they still rank in the lower part of the league in yards per play allowed and the Steelers couldn't get to even 350 yards against any of them or anyone else they faced this year. I'm cautiously optimistic the Steelers will put forth a respectable offense moving forward, and I've bumped them up a full point in my power ratings.
If you need a refresher on how to build spread power ratings, why they're important for beating the market and how successful I've been with this system at SportsLine, check out the Week 1 version of these power ratings. You can also check out SportsLine on Sunday afternoons as I give my initial power ratings adjustments for each team to get ahead of the market openers before diving in fully for this Tuesday feature. Otherwise, we'll jump right in.
Which lines are several points off their power rating projections for Week 13? And which teams are being undervalued by the market? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 13 power ratings from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!
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