UFC Fight Night odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Evloev vs. Murphy, fight card for Saturday

UFC heads to London this week, highlighted by a featherweight battle between top-ranked Movsar Evloev and third-ranked Lerone Murphy. Evloev (19-0) is coming off a unanimous decision win over Aljamain Sterling at UFC 310 in December 2024, while Murphy (17-0-1) defeated Aaron Pico by knockout at UFC 319 on Aug. 16, 2025. The main card begins at 4 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from O2 Arena in London. In the main event, Evloev is the -260 favorite (risk $260 to win $100) in the latest UFC Fight Night odds, while Murphy is the +196 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is 4.5, with the Over favored at -310. 

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy is a featherweight contest between Luke Riley and Michael Aswell Jr. With a 12-0 record, Riley is the -235 favorite (risk $235 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features eight fights.

Before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy picks: It is backing Over 1.5 rounds (+7.5% edge) in the light heavyweight bout of Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane, which returns +256. "My model shows 35.6% probability this fight goes Over 1.5 rounds," McClure said. "The decision rate is 66% in simulation and the average fight length comes out to 2.50 rounds. Both fighters have shown they can take punishment and keep competing. The chins are there, the cardio is there, and I expect this to be a longer fight than the market is pricing in."

The model is also targeting two other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +380! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy picks!

Who wins Evloev vs. Murphy, and which other fighters do you need to back with UFC predictions? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!