UFC Fight Night odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Emmett vs. Vallejos, fight card for Saturday

A pair of featherweights clash when Josh Emmett faces Kevin Vallejos in the main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday in Las Vegas. Emmett (19-6) will be looking to turn his recent fortunes around after losing four of his last five bouts. Vallejos (17-1), meanwhile, has won each of his last six fights, including a second-round knockout of Giga Chikadze in December at UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape. The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from Meta Apex. Vallejos is the -535 favorite (risk $535 to win $100) in the latest UFC Fight Night odds, while Emmett is the +400 underdog. The over/under for total rounds is 4.5, with the Under favored at -145. 

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos is a women's strawweight contest between Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson. With a 16-8 record, Robertson is the -218 favorite (risk $218 to win $100) to utilize in UFC bets. The preliminary card features eight fights.

Before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos picks: It is backing Steven Asplund over Vitor Petrino. "Asplund brings a striker approach, Petrino counters with a well-rounded game," McClure said. "The finish rate sits at 57% with decision probability at 43%. Could go either way honestly. Knockout accounts for 52% of the outcomes when someone does get finished. Fight averages 2.00 rounds in simulation, so we could see the full distance or an early night."

The model is also targeting three other plus-money UFC bets, including one that returns over +400! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos picks!

Who wins Emmett vs. Vallejos, and which other fighters do you need to back with UFC predictions? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!