UFC Fight Night odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals projections for Bautista vs. Oliveira, fight card for Saturday

After heading to Australia last week, UFC will return to its home base of Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira on Saturday. The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the Meta Apex, and the main event will feature a bantamweight bout between two ranked contenders. No. 9 Mario Bautista (16-3) will face No. 11 Vinicius Oliveira (23-3) as part of a six-fight main card. Bautista is the -142 favorite in the latest UFC odds, while Oliveira is the +120 underdog to utilize in UFC Fight Night bets.

The co-main event for UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira is a flyweight contest between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi. Riding an undefeated streak of nearly four years, Horiguchi is the -355 favorite as he looks to improve upon his No. 8 ranking. The lone heavyweight bout on the entire UFC Fight Night card features Jailton Almeida versus Rizvan Kuniev.

Before locking in any UFC picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+ , hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC Fight Night picks: It is backing Julius Walker at +140 (+8.3% edge) over Dustin Jacoby (-166) in a light heavyweight bout on the main card. "Walker's metrics suggest this fight is much closer than the odds imply. Walker lands with higher accuracy, absorbs less damage, and carries legitimate knockout upside," McClure said.

The model is also targeting several more underdogs on the main card! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks!

Who wins Bautista vs. Oliveira, and which other fighters do you need to back with UFC predictions? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!