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UFC Fight Night: Hugh Citron makes first SportsLine picks

You won't find a sharper MMA expert than SportsLine's Hugh Citron, the Vegas oddsmaker who was the first to post odds in Vegas on MMA fights. Here he breaks down and picks Barnett-Arlovski and two other fights going down Saturday in Hamburg, Germany.

By@SportsLineUpdated: Nov 06, 2017 5:06PM UTC . 4 min read

 

What: Josh Barnett (34-8) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-12) in UFC Heavyweight bout

When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET

Where: Barclaycard Arena, Hamburg, Germany

TV: UFC Fight Pass

Odds: Barnett -155, Arlovski +125

Odds courtesy of Stratosphere Casino Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night 93 comes to us Saturday from Hamburg, Germany, with a real good card from top to bottom.

The main event features veteran heavyweights Andrei Arlovski (25-12) and Josh Barnett (34-8). Barnett is a -155 favorite in a fight which either fighter could be favored.

Arlovski, 37, has lost his last two fights but that came against the two top fighters in the division. In May he was stopped in the second round by Alistair Overeem and in January he was finished in the first round by current champion Stipe Miocic. Before that, Arlovski was on an impressive six-fight winning streak. And let's not forget, he was the UFC Heavyweight Champion way back in 2005.

Barnett, 38, has split four fights since coming back to the UFC in 2013,  the wins coming against Frank Mir and Roy Nelson. He suffered a first-round KO loss in December 2013 to Travis Browne and most recently, in January of this year, he was submitted in the second round by veteran Ben Rothwell.

This fight just seems like one of those that could go either way, so I'd much rather make a case for the underdog. Arlovski is at his best when allowed to stand and use his strikes, which should be available Saturday as Barnett also would favor a stand-up fight. Barnett's win over Roy Nelson in September 2015 was lackluster to say the least, as both fighters seemed to tire in the later rounds and most of the fight was spent laying on the fence.

Look for Arlovski to get the best of the fight while it stays on the feet by using his superior hand speed to win most of the exchanges. Take Andrei Arlovski in the main event.

Pick: Arlovski (+125)

Alexander Gustafsson (16-4) vs. Jan Blachowicz (19-5) in Light Heavyweight bout

Odds: Gustafsson -725, Blachowicz +500

Gustafsson exploded on the scene in September 2013 when, as a huge underdog against Jon Jones, he lost a razor-close decision that some experts felt he actually won. His last two fights have been losses to top Light Heavyweights. In January 2015, he was shocked in his home country of Sweden, getting KO'd by Anthony Johnson in the first round. His last fight in October 2015 was a much better performance as he lost a title shot to Daniel Cormier by split decsion.

Blachowicz is coming off a decision win in April over Igor Pokrajac but just doesn't have the big names on his fight record like Gustafsson. This fight seems like a real easy spot for Gustafsson to get back to his winning ways but in the UFC it doesn't always work out that way.

Upsets of this magnitude are never easy to see coming but this could be a huge lookahead spot for Gustafsson. Take Blachowicz and the +500 or maybe higher by fight time to give Gustafsson all he can handle Saturday.

Pick: Blachowicz (+500)

Ryan Bader (21-5 vs. Ilir Latifi (13-4) in UFC Light Heavyweight bout

Odds: Bader -250, Latifi +190

One more from the Light Heavyweight division, as Ryan Bader (21-5) takes on Ilir Latifi (13-4). Both are 33 years old.

Bader was on a nice five-fight win streak (even though they were all decision wins), including a win in October 2015 over former champ Rashad Evans, until he was finished in the first round by Anthony Johnson in January of this year. Bader has been reliable against mid-level competition except for  getting finished by Tito Ortiz back in February 2011.

One thing about Bader is his chin has always been suspect and that can never be discounted when asked to lay a fairly big price.

Hailing from Sweden, Latifi may get a lift from the European crowd. That could be a factor should this fight end up in the hands of the judges. Latifi hasn't faced nearly the competition that Bader has, but he does boast a three-fight win streak coming into Saturday, two of those coming by knockout.

Latifi has good power in both hands. As the fight wears on, he might be able to test Bader's sometimes questionable chin and possibly get a KO. Take Latifi at this great price.

Pick: Latifi (+190)

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