UFC Fight Night: Are underdogs in value spots Saturday night?

What: UFC Fight Night, Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson

When: Saturday, 10 p.m. ET 

TV: FS1

Where: State Farm Arena, Hidalgo, Texas

Odds: Poirier (-160), Johnson (+130)

Odds courtesy of Stratosphere sportsbook

UFC 203 was interesting, to say the least, but did end on a high note. One of my most likely winners, C.B. Dollaway, was forced to pull out of his fight so I was left with three plays.

The first, a long-odds play on CM Punk, was exactly that as Punk showed no ability at all to be in the UFC. Also, heavyweight Travis Browne did very little in losing to Fabricio Werdum as a short-priced underdog.

We got things rolling in the main event, as our pick Stipe Miocic was able to finish Alistair Overeem in the first round, even though there were a couple scary moments, as Overeem dropped Miocic early in the round but was unable to finish him.

On to Saturday night, as seventh-ranked ranked Dustin Poirier takes on No. 10 Michael Johnson in a lightweight fight. Poirier is a (-160) favorite, with Johnson getting (+130) as the underdog.

Poirier has won seven of his last eight fights, with the only loss at the hands of Conor McGregor in September of 2014.

Poirier's last fight, in June of this year, resulted in an easy first-round KO win over Bobby Green. Poirier has been pretty reliable against mid-level competition, but hasn't been able to get that signature win to vault him into title contention.

Johnson has lost his last two fights, and that may be the reason he's getting a little short-changed in the odds Saturday night. His last lost in December of 2015 to Nate Diaz looks pretty right now, as we all know how good Diaz has looked in his last two fights against McGregor.

Before that, in August of 2015, Johnson was on the wrong side of a bad decision in a loss to Beneil Dariush in a fight most experts had Johnson winning. Before those two losses, Johnson reeled off a nice four-fight win streak against some fairly tough competition.

Decision wins over Edson Barboza, Melvin Guillard and Joe Lauzon let us know how dangerous Johnson can be even against higher-level opponents than Poirier has faced.

I think the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite here, and are placing too much emphasis on Johnson's last two losses. Look for this fight to be action-packed, with both fighters looking to exchange on the feet. I feel like Johnson's speed will be the difference in this fight.

Take Johnson as the underdog to win the main event Saturday night in what should be a great fight.

Pick: Johnson (+130)

Derek Brunson vs. Uriah Hall, middleweights

Odds: Brunson (-180), Hall (+150)

Also on the card, Uriah Hall takes on Derek Brunson in a middleweight fight. Hall, despite being ranked No. 9 in the division as to is a fairly decent underdog in this matchup against Brunson (No. 10).

Surprisingly, Brunson is a (-180) favorite with Hall getting (+150) as the underdog. Brunson has won four fights in a row, but against much weaker competition that he'll get from Hall.

Brunson, even in his last loss to Yoel Romero in January 2014, was winning the first two rounds when Romero finished him in the third.

Hall is coming off an unexpected decision loss to Robert Wittaker in November of 2015. But coming off a great win over top contender Gegard Mousasi less than two months prior may have put Hall in a look-ahead spot, and he just didn't have his usual great striking game that night.

Not only has Hall been able to finish Mousasi but in December of 2013, he also finished tough guy Chris Leben, as Leben could not answer the bell for the second round.

I see this also as a stand-up battle, with Hall's overall striking game and speed advantage making the difference.

I have a feeling this fight won't go very long, and see the underdog Hall coming out on top. Take Hall and the plus-money payback to get the win over  Brunson, probably by KO in what also should be an action-packed fight for as long as it lasts. 

Pick: Hall (+150)

Record to date: 1-5, -4.00 units