UFC 325 odds, picks, predictions: MMA model reveals fight card projections for Saturday's bout

UFC 325 will take place Down Under from Australia on Saturday, with a featherweight championship rematch headlining the event. The main card for UFC 325 begins at 9 p.m. ET from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski puts his title on the line versus Diego Lopes. Volkanovski prevailed via unanimous decision when these two met back in April 2025, while Lopes is ranked No. 2 in the division.

For Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, the latest UFC 325 odds have the champion as the -142 favorite (risk $142 to win $100), with Lopes the +120 underdog. The co-main event is a lightweight bout between Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint-Denis. Hooker, the No. 6 lightweight, is the +295 underdog to utilize in UFC bets while the eighth-ranked Saint-Denis is the -375 favorite.

Before locking in any UFC 325 picks, you NEED to see the latest MMA predictions from Mike McClure's proven computer model.

McClure's UFC model runs 10,000 simulations for every fight. Each simulation plays out the fight round-by-round, accounting for dynamic win probability that shifts based on fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers vs grapplers vs decision fighters.

The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6.1% ROI. It also got off to a hot start for the new era of UFC on Paramount+ , hitting both Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324!

One of the model's top UFC 325 picks: It is backing Mauricio Ruffy at -102 (+6.0% edge) against Rafael Fiziev. "Modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests," McClure said."

The model is also targeting several underdogs, including a +600 sleeper! Anyone who backs these fighters could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any UFC 325 picks!

Who wins Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, and which other fighters do you need to back with UFC 325 predictions? ... Join SportsLine now to see which fighters you need to be all over on Saturday, all from the model that showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25!