The Thursday Play: Don't flinch with winless Ravens

What a difference a week makes in the NFL when it comes to the health of impact players.

Had Ben Roethlisberger been available for this AFC North showdown between bitter rivals we'd be talking about the Steelers as 3.5- to 4-point favorites rather than nearly a field goal underdog to the winless Ravens.

Michael Vick assumes the reigns for the Steelers and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize weapons like Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell won't be able to operate at their highest levels.

To say Vick struggled in limited work with the Jets last year would be an understatement, so it will be interesting to see how Mike Tomlin devises a game plan catering to the aging quarterback's limited strengths.

In a stand alone spot like this, bookmakers can only hope they've made a big enough adjustment for Big Ben's absence to attract balanced action. One of the industries' leading bet tracking sites indicates that 67 percent of early action is coming in on the Ravens, meaning the house could find themselves rooting for the home team.

Personnel Issues: Quarterbacks drive covers in the NFL. Profound, eh?

Pittsburgh's offense is built around the powerful arm of Big Ben and his complete grasp of Todd Haley's pass-oriented offense. Without Ben on Sunday, the Steelers ground to a halt against St. Louis and were it not for Nick Foles being entirely inept, Pittsburgh would have lost.

Vick won't be asked to do as much as Big Ben. Expect John Harbaugh's team to play eight in the box, stifling Le'Veon Bell and the ground game. Baltimore's defense might be looking forward to seeing Vick over Big Ben considering the stop unit has now blown late leads in consecutive weeks, sending the Ravens to their worst start in franchise history.

Baltimore is surrendering 388 yards per game, 23rd in the league.

That said, Joe Flacco has the arm to test Pittsburgh's iffy secondary unlike Colin Kaepernick and Foles the last two weeks, but the bigger question is whether the aging Steve Smith can put forth the same kind of effort he did against the Bengals.

Ravens rookie wideout Breshad Perriman will be a gametime decision, but I can’t imagine him being able to operate at full speed while nursing his ailing knee.

Line Value: This game boils down to how much value you attribute to Big Ben.

For me, I make Ben worth a full touchdown and say the market is actually undervaluing his absence right now. We've seen this before from the Steelers, playing without Big Ben, and at this point in his career Michael Vick is no Dennis Dixon or Byron Leftwich (did I really just say that?!?)

The Trends (via Covers): The Ravens are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Play: Trends be damned!

The short week worth of game prep can't exactly help the Steelers, who didn't expect to be in this predicament minus the face of their franchise. I expect Mike Tomlin to come out with a conservative game plan utilizing the run rather than putting Vick in high-risk positions.

We know the Ravens are in pure desperation mode right now, staring an 0-4 hole right in the eye. Baltimore looked flat to start last week's game against Cincinnati but rallied to take a fourth-quarter lead before melting late.

My instinct is they rally the troops with the season on the brink and come out guns ablazing on Thursday. You'll rarely see me look to back a road favorite on a short week but I think Baltimore at anything less than a field goal actually feels like a bargain.

The Pick: Ravens (-2.5)

Todd Fuhrman arrives to SportsLine with an extensive resume in the sports gambling industry. Fuhrman got his start at Caesars Palace as a financial analyst back in 2005 before transitioning into sportsbook operations full time. Since his departure from the Palace back in 2011, he's experienced a meteoric rise as a gambling insider and trusted voice in the field. During his previous stint at Fox Sports he covered every sport with a point spread ranging from college and pro football to NASCAR and soccer. Follow Todd @ToddFuhrman