Sunday's three biggest sharp-square divides

There's some sense of normalcy at Las Vegas sports books for NFL Week 6 after a couple of weeks of the bizarre where sharp and public money were on the same side of several games. This week they're as distant as it gets with extreme likes on opposite sides of the three most-bet games of the week.

Let's take a look at how this process works from the sports book's perspective and the process they go through while sweating every loose ball and bad call as the 13 Sunday games unfold.

Professionals -- who bet house limits of $20,000 or higher on each side -- love the Bengals taking up to +9 at New England, the Dolphins taking +7.5 at Pittsburgh and the Chiefs laying -1 at Oakland.

The public -- which plays lots of parlays ranging from $5 to $1,000 -- love the other sides with the Patriots, Steelers and Raiders, and they don't even care what the spread is. For every sharp guy, there's a hundred bettors like these. That public money actually adds up to more cash than the sharps and the risk to the books is far greater.

When sharps win, books win

Sharp money is what causes spreads to move, but public parlays cause a lot more heartburn and anxiety for bookmakers. While the sharp money is bankable money with each result posted, the effect of public parlay bettors isn't sometimes realized until the Sunday night or Monday night game is posted -- so many combinations with 13 games.

A $22,000 winning wager for sharp bettors takes $20,000 from the books. A $100 winning seven-team parlay at 80-to-1 odds takes $8,000, and when it rains it pours with these bettors because they generally like the same sides.

When the sharps are right, the books usually win.

These guys do it professionally. It's their job. And the books don't build the most amazing high-tech TV presentations for NFL viewing because they lose. But when the public is correct on three to four games collectively, it wipes out the books that day; they pay multiple parlays at 10-to-1, 20-to-1, 40-to-1 and 80-to-1 as other random teams are added to the mix.

Pats-Steelers popular combo

The root two-team parlay for the public this week is the Patriots and Steelers. Those are the two morning games that will pay thousands of bettors 13-to-5 odds with a two-team parlay. All the parlay branches sprouting out from the root are the other teams. Risk just multiples to all the other games and it happens quickly with each result posted.

The highest rate of tickets written this week at William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada has the Patriots at 84 percent and the Steelers at 85 percent. Those books are a great gauge of public activity because most of their wagers are small.

South Point sports book director Chris Andrews is looking at the same risk root at his book. "Between parlays, teasers and money-line wagers, it would be great to split those two games," he said.

You might think Andrews would like to win both, but he's got sharp action on the Bengals and Dolphins, so he's actually looking to bank large wagers from one of those games while taking his chances that he broke up enough multi-legged parlays associated with either the Steelers or Patriots failing to cover.

If the sharps lose both those games, the books bank the large straight bet money, but the powder keg of risk starts brewing and the winnings gained from the sharps pale in comparison to what the public has in store.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick says parlay risk at his 19 books attached to the Patriots and Steelers also has the Raiders and Eagles. Andrews said his book has all those and also the Lions. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal has parlay risk on the Giants and Bills attached to the Steelers and Patriots combo as his top risk.

And of course, the public also has several other combinations. But if correct right out of the gate, it's hard for the books to recoup losses. The Sunday and Monday night risk will go through the roof as all the carryover liability is waiting to cash big parlays on those games.

Is the public due?

There's usually one week during an NFL season where the books get absolutely torched because of the public doing well. And when I say torched, it means each chain of books losing seven figures or close to it.

There is also usually one or two other weeks during the NFL season where they get beat up half as much. We haven't seen a week like that through five weeks of NFL. Maybe the public is due.

However, in the long run of a season the books emerge as winners, which is why several bettors like to keep weekly notes on what the public is betting and simply take the other side with straight bets. It's not a bad betting strategy to follow.

For my personal plays on Sunday's NFL action, get all five selections here.