SportsLine's best values to win the NCAA Tournament
Riding the favorites to win the Tournament is fine when filling out a bracket, but when it comes to investing, only a few teams make sense. SportsLine shares its best values to cut down the nets.
Time is running out to maximize value in the NCAA Tournament futures market, as the countdown to tipoff approaches for all 68 teams in the field.
| Team | Odds | Odds % | Sim % | Value |
| Kansas | 9/2 | 18.18% | 8.53% | -9.65% |
| Michigan State | 5/1 | 16.67% | 20.87% | 4.20% |
| North Carolina | 5/1 | 16.67% | 11.66% | -5.01% |
| Villanova | 12/1 | 7.69% | 7.30% | -0.39% |
| Virginia | 12/1 | 7.69% | 5.96% | -1.73% |
| Kentucky | 15/1 | 6.25% | 6.47% | 0.22% |
| Oregon | 15/1 | 6.25% | 1.40% | -4.85% |
| Oklahoma | 20/1 | 4.76% | 4.86% | 0.10% |
| Duke | 25/1 | 3.85% | 3.92% | 0.07% |
| Xavier | 25/1 | 3.85% | 2.11% | -1.74% |
| West Virginia | 25/1 | 3.85% | 1.07% | -2.78% |
| Purdue | 30/1 | 3.23% | 3.62% | 0.39% |
| Indiana | 30/1 | 3.23% | 2.74% | -0.49% |
| Maryland | 30/1 | 3.23% | 2.20% | -1.03% |
| Texas A&M | 30/1 | 3.23% | 1.89% | -1.34% |
| Miami, Fla. | 30/1 | 3.23% | 1.50% | -1.73% |
| Utah | 40/1 | 2.44% | 1.10% | -1.34% |
| Arizona | 40/1 | 2.44% | 1.09% | -1.35% |
| California | 40/1 | 2.44% | 0.71% | -1.73% |
| Iowa State | 60/1 | 1.64% | 1.72% | 0.08% |
| Baylor | 60/1 | 1.64% | 0.44% | -1.20% |
| Iowa | 80/1 | 1.23% | 1.11% | -0.12% |
| Notre Dame | 80/1 | 1.23% | 1.08% | -0.15% |
| Gonzaga | 80/1 | 1.23% | 0.54% | -0.69% |
| Texas | 80/1 | 1.23% | 0.18% | -1.05% |
| Seton Hall | 80/1 | 1.23% | 0.08% | -1.15% |
| Wichita State | 80/1 | 1.23% | 0.04% | -1.19% |
| Connecticut | 100/1 | 0.99% | 1.84% | 0.85% |
| Vanderbilt | 100/1 | 0.99% | 0.37% | -0.62% |
| Dayton | 100/1 | 0.99% | 0.08% | -0.91% |
| Wisconsin | 100/1 | 0.99% | 0.02% | -0.97% |
| Cincinnati | 200/1 | 0.50% | 1.31% | 0.81% |
| VCU | 200/1 | 0.50% | 0.64% | 0.14% |
| Michigan | 200/1 | 0.50% | 0.36% | -0.14% |
However, this sort window of opportunity also can be the most lucrative, as handicappers have the most complete picture to work with in picking which teams they want to back for a chance to win it all.
Now, you can take your profiles of each team and weigh them against the potential road they would have to conquer in order to cut down the nets.
Oddsmakers have the same information, and have adjusted their prices accordingly. The market has tightened up on both sides, as the SportsLine Projection Model similarly has reassessed its view of all the contenders, and revealed fresh projections for each team.
For the last two months, SportsLine has compared its simulation-win percentages to the odds offered by the Westgate LV Superbook to find the rare instances in which the true chances for a team outweigh the payback they are given in the sportsbook.
Such gems are even more difficult to find this week.
SportsLine still sees the Michigan State Spartans, who have long been the top-ranked team in the SportsLine Top 25, as having the best value on the board.
Their simulation results suggest a 20.87 percent chance to win, providing a 4.20 percent overlay compared to the 16.67 percent they are afforded at 5/1 sportsbook odds.
Other values are harder to come by. Last week, there were a handful of teams that appeared to present an overlay, with Villanova and Purdue also providing an expected value of better than 1 percent.
This week, the second-best bargain, according to SportsLine, is AAC tournament-champion longshot Connecticut, with a positive return of 0.85 percent at 100/1 odds.
As the NCAA Tournament fast approaches, here is one final look at some potential value plays from both the Projection Model and my own analysis ...
Michigan State Spartans (5/1):Â The SportsLine Projection Model remains convinced the Spartans are by far the best bargain on the board. With all due respect to their profile and history of postseason success, their 20.87 projected-win percentage feels ambitious at best given their potential road to the final. Michigan State has a rugged bracket and will likely have to go through North Carolina to reach the title game. I'll pass at 5/1 odds, but SportsLine is steadfast in its belief that this price is a bargain.
Villanova Wildcats (12/1):Â The Wildcats were projected at 10 percent or better for the past two weeks, but their SportsLine stock has plummeted to 7.30 percent. Accordingly, Villanova sunk from the second-best value on the board to having a negative expected value of 0.39 percent. I've never been big on the Wildcats' chances to cut down the nets, so I'll pass on them at this price.
Kentucky Wildcats (15/1):Â This wager could very well end up in the category of fool's gold but, for the time being, it continues to shine brightly in the display case. I've long believed Kentucky was a bargain at this price, give or take a little each way, and now SportsLine is on board with this observation. The Projection Model sees a positive expected value of 0.22 percent -- I think this is a modest valuation, and am more than happy to invest in the Wildcats with the lure of this juicy payback.
Oklahoma Sooners (20/1):Â SportsLine wasn't fond of the Sooners when they were among the favorites. But the adjusted price has the Projection Model reversing course, and I agree. Oklahoma might still have the best starting five in the country, and a fairly favorable bracket draw. For a team that was just a play or two away from likely earning a top seed, there is a huge overlay on the Sooners at this price. SportsLine now sees Oklahoma as providing a positive return of 0.10 percent.
Duke Blue Devils (25/1):Â Similar to Oklahoma, the defending-champion Blue Devils spent most of the season overvalued in the futures market based in large part on reputation. Now, they have been adjusted to a more realistic number, and also have a bracket draw that is favorable to their personnel. This is a rare chance to extract value from Duke, and the SportsLine Projection Model also sees the window of opportunity. It sees a 0.07 percent positive expected value versus its sportsbook odds.
Maryland Terrapins (30/1):Â After spending much of the early season ranked in the top 5, the Terrapins were beset by late-season inconsistency. Even so, there is intrigue at this price, as the Terrapins have a standout point guard and one of the best front courts in the country. I think they are worthwhile as a live longshot, but SportsLine isn't so sure. Simulations suggest a negative return on Maryland.
Purdue Boilermakers (30/1):Â The Projection Model has long seen some appeal with the Boilermakers in this price range, and I think their value has escalated amid a few recent factors. They have played well of late, having made a solid run to the Big 10 title game, and are a viable darkhorse to come out of a wide-open Midwest Region. I think Purdue is worth a shot, and SportsLine offers a positive expected value of 0.39 percent on this wager.
Pittsburgh Panthers (300/1):Â As Powerball-type investments go, the improved Panthers are definitely worth a look. They underachieved in conference play after a blistering start, but looked rejuvenated in the ACC Tournament in a pair of respectable performances. I think they have a good draw and could realistically end up in the Sweet 16, which would provide equity and hedges value after just two victories. SportsLine has Pittsburgh winning it all in 0.50 percent of simulations which, when put in perspective, is relatively high considering the astronomical odds.Â
