SportsLine NFL simulations: Bucs barely better with Tom Brady over Jameis Winston

While Cam Newton apparently is staying with the Carolina Panthers for the 2020 NFL season, we still don't know what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be doing with their own former No. 1 overall pick and ex-Heisman Trophy winner like Newton in Jameis Winston. His contract is up, so the Bucs can let Winston walk, slap the franchise or transition tag on him, or sign him to an extension.

Depending on the day or source, the Bucs might do all three. Earlier this week, Coach Bruce Arians said this of Winston's future: "We haven't made that decision yet. It's still up in the air."

Winston is a talented guy, without question, as he led the NFL with a career-high 5,109 yards passing this past season and was second with 33 touchdown passes. However, Winston's interception problems have been well-documented, and he led the league by far in 2019 with 30 picks. Winston did get LASIK surgery this offseason so perhaps that helps.

There have been reports that the Bucs are interested in moving on from Winston if they can convince Tom Brady to come to central Florida. Tampa Bay has a well-respected veteran coach in Arians, and some crazy receiving talent the Bucs could surround Brady with in Pro Bowl wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

William Hill gives the Bucs NFL odds of +1800 to be where Brady plays next season, but the SportsLine Projection Model has run simulations if Brady were to replace Winston. The results might be surprising. Tampa Bay projects for 7.1 wins with Winston and just 7.5 with Brady. On the DraftKings NFL futures odds, the Bucs have a win total of 7.5, with Over & Under both -110.

To win the NFC South, the Bucs are given a 5.5 percent chance with Jameis and 7.5 percent with TB12. Tampa is +500 on the NFL odds for the division. To make the playoffs, the Bucs jump from 16.3 percent to 19.5 with Brady but still have only a 0.2 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl compared to 0.1 with Winston.