Earlier this afternoon, the surging Indianapolis Colts were as high as 8.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks for Sunday's home game against the Las Vegas Raiders that is massive in the AFC playoff race. However, the Colts are now down to -1.5 because quarterback Carson Wentz has been placed on the COVID list. Because he's unvaccinated, that most likely will rule out any chance of him playing even with somewhat relaxed protocols by the NFL. Rookie sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger figures to start and the total has dropped from 45 to 41 points. Some books have simply taken the game off the board and will wait.
Unvaccinated players must stay away from team facilities for 10 days if they tested positive – that's the one thing that could save Wentz for this week is if he's simply a close contact and didn't test positive. If he is a close contact, he must quarantine for five days and can return after that point as long as he tests negative. If Wentz is positive, he could also miss Week 18 at Jacksonville.
The Colts have placed 15 players on the COVID list in the past week. Wentz is having a fine season, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 3,230 yards, 25 TDs and just six picks. The former Eagle said during training camp that getting vaccinated (or not) was a "personal decision." He landed on the COVID last back then as a close contact.
No Wentz could mean an even bigger reliance on NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate and rushing leader Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are 9-0 this season when Taylor rushes for at least 100 yards. As for Ehlinger, the former Texas star in three preseason games completed 21-of-31 passes for 288 yards with zero TDs and three picks; he also rushed 11 times for 55 yards.
Indianapolis (9-6) is fifth in the AFC standings and barring a miracle isn't going to catch Tennessee (10-5) for the AFC South title because the Titans would win any head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Colts win Sunday, they are in the playoffs as they would own head-to-head tiebreakers over other potential wild-card teams in the Bills, Patriots (one of those two will win the AFC East), Dolphins and Raiders. The only teams the Colts don't have head-to-head tiebreaker advantages against are the Titans and Ravens. The SportsLine Colts simulation is below.
Las Vegas (8-7) is 10th in the AFC but would be a wild-card team with a win Sunday and then Week 18 vs. the Chargers, so this is potentially a massive break for the Silver & Black because the Bolts may have nothing to play for in the finale.
| INDIANAPOLIS | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Wentz | 10.6 | 62.4% | 7.1% | 98.6% | 13.8% | 7.4% |
| w/o Wentz WK 17, 18 | 10.4 | 61.2% | 6.8% | 93.9% | 13.6% | 7.1% |
| Difference | -0.2 | -1.2% | -0.3% | -4.7% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
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