Phillies 2022 playoff odds: Bryce Harper out at least 6 weeks due to thumb surgery; SportsLine Projection Model downgrades Philadelphia's postseason chances
Phillies star Bryce Harper will have thumb surgery and miss at least six weeks.
The worst-case news has been confirmed for the Philadelphia Phillies and two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper as he will have surgery on his fractured left thumb and miss at least six weeks. Healing rates vary from person to person so that timetable could change, but it's not thought Harper's season is over – although the Phillies might be out of the playoff race by then. To make the playoffs, the Phils are now -110 with No at -120, and the SportsLine Projection Model has downgraded their chances by five percent with this news.
Through 64 games, Harper was slashing .318/.385/.599 with 15 homers and 48 RBIs. His 2.6 bWAR is tied for ninth all NL position players. This injury ends any chance at repeating as NL MVP and Caesars Sportsbook is now pricing Harper as a +7500 long shot. He was hurt Saturday when hit by a pitch from the Padres' Blake Snell.
Harper also has been playing through a small tear in the UCL of his right elbow that has prevented him from playing the outfield since April 16 and will also eventually require surgery. That had forced defensive liabilities like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to regularly play the field. Those two should share DH duties now and Matt Vierling see steadier playing time in the outfield as he's a good defender.
Philadelphia enters tonight's home game vs. Atlanta at 39-35 and third in the NL East, eight games behind the first-place Mets. The Phillies are fifth in the NL Wild-Card race (remember, there are now three WC teams now per league), two games out of the final spot.
The SportsLine Projection Model is using Aug. 30 as a return date (probably optimistic) for Harper and drops the team from 85.6 wins to 84.5 and its playoff chances from 27.5 percent to 22.4 percent. Philadelphia is 4-6 without Harper in the lineup this year.
This will have an effect on the All-Star Game as Harper was running away with the voting for the first-ever National League designated-hitter spot for the Midsummer Classic.
| PHILADELPHIA | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | LCS | WS |
| Harper Not Injured | 85.6 | 52.80% | 2.50% | 27.50% | 1.20% | 0.60% |
| Harper Out to 8/30 | 84.5 | 52.20% | 1.80% | 22.40% | 0.90% | 0.40% |
| IMPACT | -1.1 | -0.70% | -0.70% | -5.10% | -0.30% | -0.20% |
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