Patriots vs Falcons prediction, odds, TNF props: NFL expert makes Thursday Night Football player prop bet picks

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) host Rookie of the Year candidate Mac Jones and the New England Patriots (6-4) in a key Week 11 NFL matchup on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Miami, Fla. The Patriots are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Falcons vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under is set at 47 points. This will be the second meeting between these franchises since the Falcons' infamous '28-3' collapse in Super Bowl LI. In addition to the standard Thursday Night Football point spread and Patriots vs. Falcons betting lines, Caesars is also offering a plethora of prop bet options for this prime time NFL matchup, and SportsLine NFL expert R.J. White has just revealed his top player prop plays.

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White, a CBS Sports fantasy and gambling editor, ended the 2020 season on an 80-59 run on all NFL picks, returning more than $1,400 during that span. He also enters Week 9 as SportsLine's No. 3 rated NFL expert, going 51-39-1 (+800) on his last 91 NFL ATS picks. It's no surprise, as White has cashed huge twice in the world's most prestigious football handicapping competition, the Las Vegas SuperContest. Anyone who has followed his picks has seen HUGE returns.

You can see all of White's expert NFL picks and analysis HERE.

Now, White has locked in on Falcons vs. Patriots and just revealed his top three prop bet picks for this Week 10 NFL Thursday Night Football matchup.

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Mac Jones Under 252.5 passing yards (-115)

"With the Patriots playing well over the last month-plus and now facing a bad Atlanta defense, the market clearly expects a big game from the rookie signal-caller. But he's averaged just 233.3 passing yards per game on the year while topping his number just once in his last six games. And while the Falcons are more than willing to give up passing TDs by the bunches, QBs are only averaging 256.3 passing yards per game against them, which is just a tick higher than this number. Against an Atlanta offense with a limited amount of weapons, this seems like a run-and-D gameplan for Bill Belichick, which should keep Jones under this total."

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Matt Ryan longest completion Under 36.5 yards (-110)

"The Patriots defense is great at taking away what an offense wants to do and forcing it out of its comfort zone. Well, you look at this Atlanta offense, and there isn't a whole lot to take away. If the Patriots neutralize Kyle Pitts and dare the Falcons to try to win via the run by taking away deep shots, Atlanta will be forced to pick up smaller chunks of plays and try to drive the ball down the field a little bit at a time. The Pats have allowed just four pass plays of at least 37 yards all year; oddly, three game in the Texans game where they fell asleep for a half. Not even Tom Brady and Dak Prescott were able to pick up more than 35 yards on one completion against this defense. I think Atlanta can be competitive in this game, but it won't be by hitting explosive plays in the passing game."

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Russell Gage longest reception Under 19.5 yards (-125)

"I said above that I don't expect the Patriots to allow Matt Ryan to hit big plays down the field, but if the Falcons are able to pick up big chunks of yards through the air, it likely won't be on passes to Russell Gage. The Falcons wideout may be considered the team's de facto No. 1 receiver with Calvin Ridley out, but last week he had no catches on three targets in a blowout loss to the Cowboys while Olamide Zaccheus was targeted seven times. I don't know if that's a sign of things to come, but I do know that when Gage does catch the ball, he's not creating explosive plays. He was able to score a 49-yard touchdown against the Dolphins, but his only other reception of more than 12 yards this year was a 20-yarder against the Saints. And 13 of his 16 receptions were for less than 10 yards. That makes it seem unlikely Gage is going to rip off a 20-yarder here unless the Patriots defense breaks down in a key situation."

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