This is officially a take number on the Falcons, who emerged as the early front-runner for the Underdog Nobody Wants in Week 11. Their disastrous outing at Dallas last week aside, their previous two losses came by 10 combined points and a win at New Orleans as a nearly TD underdog is in the mix. Atlanta is banged up and New England has favorable matchups, but its road dominance can't last forever and the TD spot is too big to pass up. The Falcons should stop the run just enough to put some pressure on rookie QB Mac Jones in long down-and-distance situations.

I was tempted to go contrarian and pick the Falcons ... until Cordarrelle Patterson was ruled out. So the team all at once loses its best running back and receiver (with Calvin Ridley away). Jonnu Smith was the main New England injury concern but is active. The Pats are the only team to have won and covered their past four. Favorites have been absolutely terrible ATS in prime-time this season, but I can't think of a good reason to take the points.

Let me go against the grain of my fellow colleagues here and ride the Under 47. Do I think the Patriots win straight up? Probably, Belichick is 12-1 SU since 2016 on short rest. Do I think the Patriots cover? Most likely, they've covered four straight. But this NFL season is weird, some things just haven't made sense and especially with one team coming off a 40-point win and the other off a 40-point loss. Give me New England's offense coming back down to Earth a bit and Atlanta at least gets a few drives going...even if they stall out against a defense currently playing lights out. 23-22 sounds good to me.

I'm not worried about the Patriots playing on the road on a short week. They've won four straight and have looked impressive doing it. Last week they blew out Cleveland by 38. Meanwhile the Falcons were blown out themselves by Dallas. I'm on New England.

At first I thought I'd sit this one out. It looks like a bad spot for New England with the Titans and Bills on deck. But the injury news has me laying the points. Damien Harris is back from his concussion, and he and Rhamondre Stevenson should gash Atlanta's 31st-ranked run defense, enabling Mac Jones to operate without too much duress. Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is officially a gametime decision but it's looking like he won't go. Even if he does, he probably won't be his normal explosive self. Tight end Hayden Hurst is out too. That hurts because Atlanta runs a lot of two-TE sets. The Falcons have been terrible at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, losing to Philly, Washington and Carolina.

Perhaps no team has looked better than the Patriots over the last four weeks, pulling out a close win over the Chargers as underdogs and blasting their other three opponents. The Falcons, on the other hand, just got dominated by a great Cowboys team. The oddsmakers responded by bumping the Patriots up from four-point favorites on the lookahead line and the market continued to steam New England. But are you really confident laying a TD on the road with this team? Matt Ryan had been playing well before last week's dud, and while it's certainly possible the Patriots' defense is once again elite, they've gotten to face some pretty limited offenses lately. I think the Pats win but don't cover this huge line.

Just when you thought the Falcons were turning the corner offensively, they took a major step backward against the Cowboys. They enter this matchup against a Patriots team that is starting to push the ball a bit more downfield. With each passing week, rookie QB Mac Jones is gaining confidence with the scheme. Expect the Patriots defense to do a great job of minimizing the Falcons' offense by making it one-dimensional, then they can pin their ears back and get after Matt Ryan. Lay the points with New England