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Fri 11/19 | 1:20 AM UTC | Atlanta
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
New England Patriots 6-4, 6-4 ATS
NE -7
NE -330
Over 47
Atlanta Falcons 4-5, 4-5 ATS
ATL +7
ATL +260
Under 47

Expert Picks

New England 25 @ Atlanta 0 | 11/19 | 1:20 AM UTC

New England -6.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I was tempted to go contrarian and pick the Falcons ... until Cordarrelle Patterson was ruled out. So the team all at once loses its best running back and receiver (with Calvin Ridley away). Jonnu Smith was the main New England injury concern but is active. The Pats are the only team to have won and covered their past four. Favorites have been absolutely terrible ATS in prime-time this season, but I can't think of a good reason to take the points.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+986 20-9 IN LAST 29 NFL ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ATS PICKS
+99 8-6 IN LAST 14 NE ATS PICKS

Season Splits

6-4, 6-4 ATS
4-5, 4-5 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
60%
6-4
4-5
44%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
75%
3-1
1-3
25%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
57%
4-3
2-3
40%
When Spread was -8 to -5
SPREAD
When Spread was +5 to +8
67%
2-1
1-1
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
67%
2-1
0-1
0%
vs Teams That Win 40-55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
50%
1-1
1-2
33%
vs Teams Allowing >25 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
50%
1-1
1-1
50%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
67%
6-3
3-4
43%
vs ATL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NE
0%
0-0
0-0
0%