Patriots vs. Broncos lines, picks: Predictions, best bets for NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve prime-time matchup from proven computer model

The Denver Broncos (7-7) will host the New England Patriots (3-11) in the Christmas Eve night matchup in NFL Week 16. Denver has won six of its past eight games, while the Patriots have lost six of seven. Sunday's kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Broncos are seven-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, while the over/under is 37. Before you make any Broncos vs. Patriots picks of your own, you NEED to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is WAY UP.

The model knows the Broncos were on a roll until hitting a speed bump in Detroit last week in a 42-17 loss. Still, Russell Wilson threw for more than 220 yards for a second straight game, while Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy combined for 145 receiving yards. The defense won't have nearly as much trouble with the Patriots, who score the fewest points in the NFL (13.3 per game). 

The model also has considered that New England won 21-18 in Pittsburgh two weeks ago and quarterback Bailey Zappe's potential has given the offense more confidence. Zappe had a rough day against a fierce Chiefs defense, but he threw for 240 yards and three TDs against the Steelers. The Broncos have the second-worst overall defense in the NFL, giving up 382.4 yards per game.     

Now, the model has broken down the Christmas Eve Patriots vs. Broncos matchup from all angles. We can tell you the model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread has ALL the value! You ABSOLUTELY need to see it before locking in any NFL picks.

Who wins Broncos vs. Patriots in Sunday's NFL Week 16 matchup? And which side of the spread has ALL the value? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Lions vs. Broncos spread is a MUST-BACK, all from the model on a 178-129 roll on NFL picks!