Patrick Mahomes NFL MVP odds, Chiefs Super Bowl 56 futures both get much longer after blowout Week 7 loss
There has been quite a shift on Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes futures odds in the wake of another ugly loss.
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Caesars Sportsbook listed the Kansas City Chiefs at Over/Under 12.5 wins entering this season, and the Over took a lot of action at the book. That made sense considering the added 17th game and Kansas City had won at least 12 games in each of the previous three 16-game seasons. Following Sunday's shockingly one-sided loss at Tennessee, the Chiefs (3-4) would now have to win out to top 12.5 victories and that's surely not happening. Other NFL futures odds involving the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes changed dramatically following Week 7.
Sunday's 27-3 defeat was the Chiefs' worst offensive performance of the Mahomes era – his first career game without 250 passing yards or a passing TD -- and he left the game after taking a big hit to the head but is expected to be fine to play on Monday in Week 8 against the visiting New York Giants.
One huge difference from these Chiefs and previous versions under Mahomes has been turnovers. In 2018, when Mahomes was a first-year starter and won the NFL MVP, the Chiefs turned the ball over 18 times. In 2019, they gave it away only 15 times. Last season, 16. This year: 17 in seven games.
Mahomes has thrown nine picks, including at least one in six straight games. He has five games with multiple turnovers. In addition, explosive plays have disappeared with teams play more zone defense and not blitzing. Kansas City has just one 50-plus yard gain, a 75-yard TD catch by Tyreek Hill in the season opener.
Once the +500 favorite to win a second NFL MVP at Caesars, Mahomes is now +4000 – behind eight other quarterbacks and even running back Derrick Henry (+2000).
"Mahomes look a little desperate right now out there," said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "He's trying to do too much, and he's got enough talent on that side of the ball. If they turn it around and win the division, Mahomes has to be MVP caliber going forward. What's holding back Mahomes is that he's going up against a loaded field and he has way too many turnovers. The other top quarterbacks have been much better at taking care of the football."
Kansas City is a +230 second-favorite behind the Chargers at -105 (who already hold one tiebreaker) to win the AFC West. The Chiefs entered the year with ridiculous odds of -1100 to make the playoffs. That's down to -190 as they sit 11th in the AFC. To win Super Bowl 56, Mahomes & Co are +1300 eighth-favorites.
"At 13/1, that's still a lot of respect given their record and how they've looked," said Mucklow. "Nobody is scared of the Chiefs anymore given how bad the defense is. All the pressure is on Mahomes because the offense has to score in the thirties just to keep them competitive. Before this season, that would get them the win pretty much every time. But they still have Mahomes, Tyreek, Kelce and Reid, that's very dangerous come playoff time. I don't think they would be favored against the Bills or the Ravens on a neutral field right now, but they would be favored against the rest of the AFC teams."
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts KC to win 8.3 games and gives it a 25.3 percent chance of the playoffs, which equates to around +300.
While Kansas City should obviously beat the injury-ravaged Giants in Week 8, then the Chiefs face Packers, Raiders and Cowboys, who are a combined 14-5. The playoffs could be a pipe dream by KC's Week 12 bye.
"If they lose to the Giants, that would be the teller for how much trouble they're in," Mucklow said. "All of their losses right now are to teams that will make the playoffs. Games against the Giants are the ones you are expected to win and win easily. Teams bigger than a touchdown favorite are 28-2 this year, one of the two losers was the Chiefs against the Chargers. If they lose this, that's when their odds could go into freefall."
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