Panthers vs. Falcons picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

This column must begin with a disclaimer: I have an Atlanta Falcons problem. And, well, a Carolina Panthers problem.

I have a hard time figuring these teams out and which versions of them will show up in any given week. With rare exceptions, I have struggled to determine strong betting angles on their games, and when I have found something I like it has been quite hit-or-miss -- such as when these two last met a few weeks back and conspired to produce one of the more bizarre fourth-quarter/overtime scoring binges you will ever seen.

I did really like the Panthers to beat the spread, which they barely did, but also believed they would win outright, which they somehow did not. In the interim the Falcons have continued to be a complete Jeckyl-and-Hyde operation while the Panthers put forth one of the more insipid outings of the season against the Bengals. So what do we make of them now?

Not much.

With all of that out of the way, here's what I kinda/sorta like about this latest Thursday night (probable) freakshow:

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Spread: Falcons -3

Well, like, this would have been a push two weeks ago in that 37-34 affair. I like Cordarelle Patterson being back for the Falcons and Atlanta running the offense through him. Marcus Mariota has been the NFL leader in air yards per attempt and he just feasted on this defense a fortnight ago. The Panthers are in a quarterback quandary – again – and after all the hits they have already absorbed this season, you have to wonder about their collective psyche after Joe Mixon stole their football soul just a few short days ago. Carolina allowed an average of 39.5 points over the past two games. That starts to take a toll and this offense looks too broken to be fixed in a short week.

Total: Over 44

There are a couple of ways to look at the meeting between these teams last month. They combined for just 34 points through the first three quarters, then all hell broke loose. I'm leaning into the latter. Falcons Overs are 6-3 – though they and the Chargers somehow conspired to go Under last week. Even with a ground-heavy attack, they can still roll up big yards and set up quick strikes in play action. Game flow tends to get crazy with Atlanta. The last three Thursday night games have gone Over as well, if you are looking for a trend there. Atlanta rolled up 167 on the ground last time against the Panthers, and that was without Patterson. His presence makes them even more difficult to defend and if/when the Falcons do get a lead, their defense is generally willing to give a lot of if back. So I'll embrace that.

Same-Game Parlay (+1000)

• Kyle Pitts Anytime TD
• Younghoe Koo Over 6.5 Kicking Points
• Cordarrelle Patterson Over 51.5 Rushing Yards

Player Props

Marcus Mariota Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-119)

Mariota ran six times for 43 yards last time out. With the pass game being hit-or-miss, and this being something of a must-win game for the Falcons, I see him scrambling around more than enough in this game as well. He can get cute with Patterson in the option game and with all eyes on him now, I see even more opportunity for Mariota to pop at least one long run, which is probably enough to get us at least close to home here.

Marcus Mariota Interception (+133)

Mariota threw two picks against these Panthers a few weeks back. They might still be in his head a bit. There's a lot of value here, and while we think of Mariota as risk-averse, he is taking way more deep shots this season, which come with a higher risk factor for the turnover.

Cordarrelle Patterson Over 62.5 Scrimmage Yards (-119)

Patterson does it all for Atlanta. He will get plenty of volume in the run and pass game and has home-run potential either way/ The Panthers are failures against the run (bottom five in yards and touchdowns allowed).

Kyle Pitts Anytime TD (+245)

I know Pitts hasn't exactly taken the league by storm or been featured nearly enough in this offense, but he is still a freakish athlete who could potentially take a game over at any point. He did get nine targets against the Panthers two weeks ago and hit pay dirt, and the Panthers do allow a 118.8 rating on targets to TEs (30th in the NFL) and a 77% completion rate. And the Falcons should run a ton of plays in this game. So, like, if I know all of this then surely Arthur Smith and Mariota know this, too, right? Right?

DJ Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

I don't really know which QB is going to actually start and finish this game for the Panthers, but I do know the Falcons had no answers for Moore two weeks ago – including at the end of the game when everyone knew where PJ Walker was going to look and Moore made what should have been a game-winning TD catch anyway. After the taking-off-the-helmet debacle, I expect him to deliver big again here against a depleted secondary.

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