Packers vs. Titans picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Thursday Night Football

I have been riding the Titans lately and fading the Packers, so you might think this is an easy game for me. But it is not.

The Titans' litany of injuries gives me some pause, and the spotty outing from Ryan Tannehill did the same (though he was certainly better in the second half Sunday). Having to play at Lambeau – likely in some unfriendly weather – in primetime on a short week is suboptimal. Jeffrey Simmons trending in the right direction is huge -- unless the Titans decide that, with this being an NFC opponent and them building a cushion in the lowly AFC South, it's best to keep him off his feet until Week 12.

But we do know what kind of effort and physicality the Titans will provide, and that doesn't change much no matter who they are playing and when they are playing them. The Packers have been a hot mess for much of the season and I tend to think a good portion of their second-half success Sunday was due to the Cowboys defense wilting. So, yeah, you can probably tell where I am leaning here.

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Spread: Titans +3

I have to take the points. This is a Mike Vrabel team on a 6-1 heater beating people up every week that continues to get disrespected with these lines against losing opponents. The Titans have covered in seven straight and won five straight games that Tannehill has started. The Packers offense is predicated on its ground game and Tennessee stuffs the run (first in rushing yards allowed since Week 3). The Packers pass defense is sus, as the kids say, and Tannehill is a wizard in play action. Green Bay allows  a 125 passer rating on play action, 30th in the NFL. The Titans generate a ton of pressure on the quarterback without blitzing and that will be a factor with an aging – and more beat up than usual – Aaron Rodgers turning around on short rest.

Total: Under 41

Sure the Packers got around to making some passing touchdowns happen last week, and the Titans do allow plenty of passing yards. But the Titans have been a demon on third down and they force you to kick field goals, and Tennessee isn't equipped to score quickly or score much. The Under is 13-6 for these two teams this season and the Titans have gone Under for six in a row. Tennessee is 8th in the NFL in TDs allowed per drive and fifth in points allowed per drive, and Green Bay is middle-of-the-pack in producing offensive TDs.

Team Total: Green Bay Under 22.5

We can quibble about who they have faced and how dynamic those offenses are, but these are the points allowed by the Titans the past seven weeks: 10, 20 (at Arrowhead in OT), 10, 10, 17, 17. I'm not buying an instant turnaround for a Packers offense that was out of ideas and much hope on offense just a few days ago. They'll get some yards between the tackles but I could also see Rodgers's recent redzone woes resurfacing against this opponent. I don't think they have three TDs and a field goal in them.

Same-Game Parlay (+1000)

• Under 41
• Christian Watson Anytime TD
• Ryan Tannehill Under 187.5 Passing Yards

Player Props

Christian Watson Anytime TD (+165)

Rodgers hasn't been able to get going with anyone in the pass game all season outside of running backs -- until he activated Watson last week. I anticipate Rodgers allowing him to make plays on the ball against this secondary with so few other options to count on.

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 TDs (-104)

I know I'm on the under here, but I still see Rodgers tossing a few touchdowns and this looks like decent value to me.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Over 27.5 receiving yards (-117)

Maybe last week was a one-hit wonder, but the Titans don't have many options in the passing game. With Tannehill back in there, they will try to push the ball downfield. He's a deep threat and even before last week's 119-yard breakout he quietly caught two balls for 72 yards in Week 5. The Green Bay secondary is beat up.

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