Packers NFL playoff odds, scenarios: Green Bay gets huge lift from Week 16 results but remain postseason underdog

If you are a Green Bay Packers fan, you had a fantastic Christmas weekend. Not only did Green Bay pull off an upset of the Dolphins in Miami, but four teams they are battling for perhaps the final NFC wild-card spot all lost in Washington, the New York Giants, Detroit and Seattle. DraftKings oddsmakers still list the Packers as +175 underdogs to reach the postseason and -225 to miss out.

Via the SportsLine Projection Model, Green Bay's chances went from 14% (+614) of making the playoffs to 29% (+245). FiveThirtyEight gives Aaron Rodgers & Co. a 27% chance currently (+270), but that would increase to 56% with a win Sunday at home vs. Minnesota – which already has clinched the NFC North but still has some motivation with an outside chance at the conference's top seed – compared to 2% with a loss. The Packers then close at home vs. Detroit.

If the season ended today, New York (8-6-1) and Washington (7-7-1) would hold the final two NFC playoff spots. Both teams lost Saturday but must lose again for the Packers to pass them in the standings. The Giants would have to lose both of their remaining games for Green Bay to catch them, and New York finishes the year with Indianapolis (4-9-1) and Philadelphia (13-2). The Eagles might not have anything to play for in Week 18, though. The Colts will be on a short week as they host the Chargers tonight.

If the Packers win out, Washington must lose once more, with two remaining home games against Cleveland (6-9) and Dallas (11-4). Seattle and Detroit both have the same 7-8 record as Green Bay. The Lions have the head-to-head edge on the Packers until they meet again in Week 18. The Seahawks have the head-to-head advantage over Detroit. If both the Seahawks and Packers win out, Green Bay would have a better record in NFC games (7-5 compared to 6-6 for the Seattle) and would win that tiebreaker. But the Packers' simplest path to the playoffs is winning out and getting either a Washington loss or two Giants losses.

With three straight victories, Green Bay has matched its longest winning streak of the season. Sunday also marked its third win this year the season in a game in which it trailed by double digits (20-10 late in the second quarter).

Miami (8-7) holds the final AFC tiebreaker despite Tua Tagovailoa throwing three consecutive interceptions in the fourth quarter as the Packers rallied from a 20-13 halftime deficit to win 26-20. It was the Fins' fourth loss in a row after winning five straight from Weeks 7-12. The Dolphins, who are -225 to make the playoffs and +175 to miss, close at New England and home vs. the Jets.

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