North Carolina 2022 NCAA Tournament odds, bracketology: Tar Heels need signature win Saturday vs. Virginia Tech

When North Carolina Hall of Fame basketball coach Roy Williams retired in the offseason, the school didn't conduct a nationwide search for one of the top jobs in the nation – then again, neither did Duke – and hired Williams assistant Hubert Davis. The former star Heels guard was getting roasted on social media Wednesday night after UNC was shocked at home by a bad Pittsburgh team. The Heels (18-8) are very much on the NCAA Tournament bubble and SportsLine offers odds on if they make the Big Dance.

UNC, which has the third-most national titles in men's basketball with six, hasn't missed the Big Dance since 2010 but would have had there been one in 2020 – it was of course cancelled due to the pandemic. Last year's team was a No. 8 seed and was routed in the first round by No. 9 Wisconsin. That dropped Williams to 29-1 all-time in first-round games as a head coach.

The Heels brought back pretty much everyone of note from that team, led by leading scorer and rebounder Armando Bacot, and were preseason No. 19 in the AP poll. All of the Heels' losses this season had been quite acceptable – Purdue, Tennessee, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Miami, Wake Forest, Duke -- until Wednesday as the Panthers were No. 179 in the NCAA NET rankings, third-worst among the six major conference teams.

UNC had been a combined 14-0 against the two lowest quads (3 & 4). And it was no fluke, with Pitt leading 40-23 at the half, the Heels' third-largest halftime deficit in Smith Center history. Ken Pomeroy's database measured the loss to Pitt as the third-worst defeat Carolina suffered across the last 20 years. To add salt to the wound: Pitt is coached by former Duke star Jeff Capel.

"We just didn't play the way that I hoped, anticipated, thought that we would play," Davis said. "With so much to play for, so much motivation to compete and have fun. Just very disappointed."

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm in his bracketology had UNC among the "First Four Out" before Wednesday and now not even among that group. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has it among the "Last Four In." The Heels' NET ranking dropped from 37th to 45th. Their problem is zero wins against Quad 1 opposition -- no team has ever made the NCAA Tournament winless against that group in that many attempts.  A Quad 1 win is at home against a school ranked 1-30, at a neutral site against a school ranked 1-50 or on the road against one ranked 1-75.

North Carolina's best non-conference win had been at home vs. then-No. 24 Michigan on Dec. 1, but the Wolverines have hugely disappointed since, aren't ranked or in Quad 1 and on the bubble themselves. That head-to-head win could actually mean something on Selection Sunday, though.

As things stand today, Carolina has only two chances left in the regular season for a Quad 1 win: Saturday at red-hot Virginia Tech (37th in NET rankings) and the finale at Duke (No. 12). Victories vs. Louisville (128), at NC State (130) and vs. Syracuse (84) won't help much.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will North Carolina be in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field?

• Yes -180
• No +150

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