NFL Week 8 best bets: Top five spread picks for premier NFL betting competition from proven expert

I cost myself a winning week last week by flipping a few picks right before submission based on how final injury reports shook out, and the key mistake was taking Seattle -3 out of my picks. In the Vegas pick 'em contests like Circa Million, where I'm 20-15 but fading after a hot start, a push counts as a half-point, and that's just not going to cut it as getting 50% of the possible points in the contest leaves you far behind the cash line. As a result, I tend to avoid lines on key numbers like 7 and especially 3 if I can help it.

That "if" comes into play this week as six teams being on bye leaves us with more limited options than usual. Two of the contest lines land on 3 and another two land on 7, so if we were to completely avoid those key numbers, we'd be down to a field of just eight possible games from which to pick (throwing out the Thursday game). When the lines came out Thursday afternoon, I thought that would be manageable as I saw a lot of teams I liked in that pool, but final injury reports have thrown a lot of my potential picks into doubt and forced me to consider those 3 and 7-point spreads.

Like last week, I still have a couple picks I like (the Browns and Bears came through easily as my top selections in Week 7) and then some tough decisions to make about which injuries matter the most and which key numbers might be the best to gamble on avoiding. You can find my five best bets for Week 8 based on the Circa Million contest lines below.

Why listen to me? I'm 718-623-37 and up more than 32 units on ATS picks over the last eight years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 464-379-27 (55%) over the last 10 years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. 

So which NFL contest picks am I making for Week 8? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL ATS best bets from the expert who's 718-623-37 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2024, returning more than 32 units!

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