We're coming off a disappointing 2-3 week where again it felt like it could've been much better, with a fumble return touchdown costing us a Panthers cover and a rash of timely penalties keeping the Eagles from running away from a Commanders team they severely outplayed otherwise. Even our Colts pick went from awful in the first half to live heading into overtime before they were unable to get a stop. It's virtually impossible to have five no-sweat plays in a week, so we know we're going to need some luck to get back to the cash line in the Circa Million.

Hopefully that good luck starts this week. The card features a game with a stunning four-point move off the lookahead number thanks to Joe Burrow continuing to look incapable of piloting a functional offense in his current state. Ugly performances by the Panthers and Giants have caused their lines to balloon even further. The Jaguars play a second straight game in London for the first time ever. But the biggest news of the week may be players like Jonathan Taylor, Cooper Kupp, Von Miller and Jameson Williams potentially making their respective debuts.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm going to back a team that looked awful last week against another such team: the New England Patriots (PK) vs. the New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots had no answers for a tough Cowboys pass defense, but the Saints game could prove a little different as their sack rate is mediocre on the season, which should give Mac Jones more time to get in a rhythm. The Saints inexplicably let Derek Carr play through an injury and the results were predictably awful. He's practicing in limited fashion this week and should be on track to play again, but even if he was healthy this would be a tough road test for the longtime Raiders QB despite the Patriots losing two defenders to injury last week. The Saints offense is just 29th in yards per play and last in red zone success rate, and this should be a matchup where the Patriots can limit their opponent's scoring and get out the door with a win, similar to the Jets game from a few weeks back.

Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 5.

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