NFL Week 5 best bets: Top five spread picks for premier NFL betting competition from proven expert

After another last-second field goal block by the Bears cost us a win in Circa Million -- the third week in a row we were on the wrong side of a fluky end-game field goal play -- a strong start has turned into a 12-8 record. In the premier Vegas NFL betting contest, where we make five picks every week, staying on a 3-2 pace each week and then finding an extra couple of wins throughout the year is how you make it over the cash line, so in different circumstances, we'd feel pretty good about 12-8. But when you start to add up the bad breaks, it feels like our record after four weeks has a bit of bad luck built in.

Will that turn around in Week 5? Not only are there two fewer games on the board by virtue of the NFL's first slate of byes, but an astonishingly large amount of injuries around the league has made it difficult to project the performance of the actual players lining up on Sunday and Monday. Will the Ravens put up a fight with a lineup half full of backups? Can the Giants and Dolphins overcome the loss of their top receivers? Will left tackle injuries to the Chargers and Raiders be too much to overcome for those offenses? Will the state of the Vikings' offensive line allow Dillon Gabriel to secure the win in his first career start? We have to consider all that and more when building our card.

I'm back with my five best bets for Week 5 based on the Circa Million contest lines below.

Why listen to me? I'm 718-623-37 and up more than 32 units on ATS picks over the last eight years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 464-379-27 (55%) over the last 10 years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. 

So which NFL contest picks am I making for Week 5? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL ATS best bets from the expert who's 718-623-37 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2024, returning more than 32 units!

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