NFL Week 4 Vegas contest picks: Top Survivor, spread selections from Las Vegas contest expert

I hope there are sports bettors out there who just blindly fade the consensus selections in the Las Vegas against the spread contests, Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest. If there are, those folks are out to a 24-5-1 start through the first three weeks of the 2025 NFL season.

Week 3 was another difficult one for the majority, going 1-3-1 in the Westgate SuperContest and 1-4 in the Circa Sports Million. Circa Survivor also finally saw some carnage with the Browns upsetting the Packers and the Falcons getting blanked by the Panthers. Another 2,033 entries hung on by a thread with the Jets nearly pulling off a miracle comeback at Tampa Bay.

We've said in this column before that the plays one makes in a contest are not necessarily the same plays that one makes as traditional bets. One contest strategy I like to employ is trying to guess what the top-five consensus plays will be and using this handicap toward how you want to put together one's own card. Late in the season, if you are sitting on a lead, trying to align with the consensus is not a bad thing. If you are chasing from behind, you have to try to avoid the consensus – or even go opposite of what you feel some of the most popular sides will be. 

I have always said there are three types of winners. One, a winner that everyone is on. Two, a winner that nobody is on. And three, a winner that is opposite of a side everyone is on. Winner No. 3 being the most powerful as far as separating oneself from the field and moving up the leaderboard.

My partners and I on the Las Vegas Football Contest Show (www.FootballContestShow.com), found this particular week to be very difficult in finding five games we liked against the spread. 

So which team should you back in Week 4 for Survivor? And which teams have strong value on the spread?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 4, all from Las Vegas contest expert Brady Kannon!