NFL Week 3 Vegas contest picks: Top Survivor, spread selections from Las Vegas contest expert

What an interesting beginning to this particular NFL season from a contest perspective. Favorites continue to find ways to win, setting record lows in Survivor contests as far as the rate of elimination, while conversely, it remains a bloodbath for the majority of selections in the against-the-spread contests.

The top five consensus picks in both the Circa Million and the Westgate SuperContest went 0-5 in Week 1. The consensus plays were 2-3 in Week 2 in Circa Million and 1-4 in the SuperContest. That is just 3-17 combined. Only 156 entries out of 751 in the Westgate SuperContest are above .500 after two weeks. Our Las Vegas Football Contest Show team (www.FootballContestShow.com) is 4-6 through two weeks in both contests, and we're well above average in the standings.

Meanwhile, Survivor players are experiencing the exact opposite. In 2024, roughly 70% of the field in Circa Survivor had been eliminated after the first two weeks of the season. With a record 18,712 entries in Circa Survivor in 2025, less than 9.4% of the field has been eliminated through that same two-week period.

Only one entry out of 69 in Circa Grandissimo has been eliminated so far, and 107 of 111 entries remain alive in SuperContest Survivor.

To illustrate the lack of carnage or the lack of underdogs winning outright, Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams on X) points out that NFL favorites of 4 points or more in 2025 are undefeated SU through the first two weeks of the season for the first time ever. Wow.

If Week 2 in the NFL is "Overreaction Week," I feel like Week 3 is "Public Perception Week." We start to rush to opinions on teams, labeling them as awful or outstanding, yet we have only witnessed two games. Certainly, we have seen something, but really, we haven't seen very much at all—yet. I feel like we will learn so much more about so many of these teams over the next two to three weeks that standing too strongly on assessments at this point can be risky business in both betting and in contest play.

Given that we understand that there is so much that still qualifies as "unknown," and then looking at this week's matchups, it makes for what I feel is a very dicey card with potential landmines looming. From an ATS perspective, I feel there are a handful of "ugly dogs" that have gotten off to 0-2 starts and could show up this week. But then you shift over to Survivor contests, and do you want to play these big favorites to win the game outright against those ugly dogs who you feel are live to cover? Talk about risky business. My goodness. As I said, NFL 2025 is off to quite an interesting start.

For a full breakdown of all the games, our selections, and our strategies, check out the Las Vegas Football Contest Show on YouTube or go to www.FootballContestShow.com

So which team should you back in Week 3 for Survivor? And which teams have strong value on the spread?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 3, all from Las Vegas contest expert Brady Kannon!