We got back to our winning ways in Week 2, going 3-2 after the Packers managed an easy cover on Sunday night. This week has been a difficult one to settle on contest picks; I would've loved going with the Chargers at -7 with the Jaguars coming out west, but uncertainty around Justin Herbert's health means taking the Chargers is impossible this week, and a lot of people are probably going be on the Jaguars if the market has the line much lower through the deadline for entering picks. Games with interesting underdogs at +3 came off the key number when contest lines locked, though I'm still playing one underdog I love even at +2.5. And exactly half of the SuperContest lines are within a half-point of where I projected them in my power ratings, leaving few options that stand out like the Packers did last week.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL ATS expert over the last five years, going 445-378-24 against the spread to put me up more than 25 units on those picks at SportsLine. I've also delivered a 56.8 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last seven seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing a squad getting points against what I believe is the worst team in the league: the Houston Texans +2.5 at the Chicago Bears.

This isn't a vote of confidence in the Texans offense, which ranks last in yards per play through two weeks. But note that Davis Mills isn't making mistakes with his passes, which is keeping the Texans in games against what people thought were pretty good Colts and Broncos teams just a few weeks ago. That's a testament to the Texans defense, and I think they can have a lot of success against this woeful Bears passing attack that's averaging just 76.5 yards through the air. The Bears didn't want to let Justin Fields air it out last week even down big against Green Bay, with the quarterback attempting just 11 passes.

Basically, this pick boils down to being shocked the Bears are laying points again anyone after what we've seen from their offense. I have them rated as my No. 32 team, after all, so I have to take the points with the Texans here.

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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