NFL Week 17 betting recap: Inside the week's biggest upsets, best bets and how it all affected the Week 18 lines

The hallmark of this NFL season has been the remarkable amount of games decided by one-score margins. Like a good murder mystery in which we don't know whodunit it until the end, we often don't know whowonit until the final seconds tick away.

Week 17, then, is an aberration. Through Sunday night, nine of 15 games have wound up with double-digit differences. There were an unusual number of blowouts: Lions over Bears by 31, Giants over Colts by 28, Packers over Vikings by 24, Chargers over Rams by 21, Seahawks over Jets by 17.

Four of those five easy, breezy winners were won by betting favorites, which explains the paucity of outright upsets.

The closing week of the regular season could generate more one-sided results, given that some teams could rest players or audition backups. 

Here is a deeper dive into the week's outcomes from a betting perspective. 

Top 'Dogs

The no-doubter is New Orleans. Though the Saints were spotted just 4.5 points, they went on the road against the top overall playoff seed in Philadelphia (13-2). New Orleans won 20-10, only to be erased from postseason contention later when Green Bay downed Minnesota. Buffalo can match the Eagles' league-best 13-3 record by beating Cincinnati on Monday night.

Three other underdogs by the slimmest of margins won straight-up. The Browns upended the Commanders 24-10 and the Seahawks bounced the Jets 23-6. Pittsburgh closed out the Sunday schedule by beating Baltimore 16-13.

Sunday's biggest 'dogs tried their hardest for the top 'dog honor. Denver (+12.5) fell to Kansas City 27-24, as did Las Vegas (+10) to San Francisco 37-34 in overtime. 

Bad Beats

Miami's touchdown with a minute to go at New England brought the Dolphins to within 23-21, the final score. The TD delivered an Over, which was 41.5, and cost backers of the Patriots (-3) a cover as Nick Folk's third missed PAT this year proved painful.

The traditional late-game kneel-down tormented Over plays in the Arizona-Atlanta meeting. The Cardinals led 19-17, with a total of 40.5, as the Falcons ran twice inside the 10-yard line in the final minute. On third down from the Arizona 2-yard line, quarterback Desmond Ridder genuflected to set up a field goal at the buzzer. Atlanta won 20-19, maintaining the Under.

Panthers supporters might consider themselves victims of a bad beat. Carolina (+3.5) jumped ahead 14-0 against offensively torpid Tampa Bay. Fast-forward to the final whistle, with the Bucs celebrating a 31-20 victory.

The Steelers went more than 59 minutes without a TD, so Baltimore backers were giddy with their team leading by four on a one-point line. Pittsburgh finally broke the goal line, winning 16-13 for an against-the-spread and moneyline victory. 

How the Books Fared

A near-even split on ATS wagering, with underdogs going 8-7, generally means a so-so week for the sportsbooks.

At Caesars, the public went 3-1 on its heaviest plays. It won on Denver +12.5 against Kansas City, Green Bay -3 vs. Minnesota and Seattle +1.5 against the Jets. The lone loser was the Rams +6.5 vs. the Chargers.

In a rarity, more than half of the totals attracted at least 80% of the action on one side. The public went 4-5 on those plays. Also unusual was the bulk of bettors going Under on six of the games.

Week 18 Line Moves

Only two spreads have shifted by more than a half-point.

Despite the Raiders' near-upset of the 49ers, they have ballooned to +9.5 Saturday against the Chiefs. K.C. opened as a 6.5-favorite.

The Rams getting spanked by the intra-city rival Chargers likely explains their increased underdog status Sunday against Seattle. The Seahawks are -6.5, up from -4.5. 

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
  
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
  
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy
  

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.