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NFL Week 14 opening line projections: Early power rating adjustments to help attack spreads for every game

Be ready for the Week 14 spread release from the sportsbooks with our early look at Week 14 ATS power ratings

By@rjwhite1Updated: Dec 04, 2023 12:20AM UTC . 3 min read

Week 13 has been notable for how much ugly football has been played. Not just in terms of watching the Patriots and Jets try to operate an offense, but also due to awful weather conditions around the league that resulted in one game being suspended multiple times. The Cardinals-Steelers matchup was pushed back so long that Arizona played a significant portion of the game in its normal late afternoon time slot, with the final whistle not blowing until well past 5 p.m. ET. Maybe that played a small part in the Cardinals somehow dominating the Steelers in Pittsburgh?

The weather conditions make it a little more difficult to evaluate whether certain teams deserve to be adjusted in the power ratings. Were the Patriots significantly worse with Bailey Zappe at quarterback? Not really, even though they were shut out by the Chargers at home. Did bad weather make it even more difficult for the Commanders to cover, tackle or just generally look like their defense was on the field at all? Maybe, but it seems more than likely the Dolphins were going to score 40 regardless in retrospect. And questionable officiating changed the tenor of at least two games (Broncos-Texans, Falcons-Jets), making it hard to know how different things could've been in an alternate universe where the NFL manages to deliver consistently solid officiating on a weekly basis.

Even with the poor matchup, I bumped the Dolphins up a point in my power ratings just to align them with teams like the Cowboys and Ravens rather than keeping them slightly behind. I moved the Texans up a point and the Broncos down a point after they were dead average coming into the week, as it's surprising the game was close at all in the end considering how each team played. I dropped the Steelers, Patriots and Jets down a half-point with their QB issues, and bumped the Saints up a half-point with the seeming likelihood Jameis Winston will start next week due to Derek Carr's numerous injuries.

I also made plenty of other power ratings adjustments to get an idea of where I would set the spread for each Week 14 game. You can see all of my early projected spreads below, which is designed to help you attack the Week 14 opening lines later today.  We'll run our full look at power ratings and official spread projections on Tuesday here at SportsLine.

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