NFL Week 14 betting trends, odds: Bettors hammering under totals league-wide except for Bills-Bucs, 49ers-Bengals
There's a very noticeable trend on totals around the NFL in Week 14.
The 2020 NFL season finished as the highest scoring in league history with the mean average for teams around 24.8 points per game. This season entering Week 14, that number is down to 22.9. Could that help explain why Under totals are largely dominating? After winning Week 13 by a 9-5 count, Unders overall have a record of 109-83-2 (56.8 percent) through 13 weeks. No surprise, then, that bettors at Caesars Sportsbook are crushing Unders on all Week 14 games except for two: Bills-Bucs and 49ers-Bengals.
Of the 13 games scheduled Sunday and Monday, 10 Unders have gotten the majority on both tickets sold and money wagered. One game has a split: With a total of 43 points, 71 percent of tickets sold on Ravens-Browns is on the Under but also that same amount on the Over. It is expected to be a bit windy in Cleveland on Sunday, but the weather around the country looks nice overall.
"I can't recall the last season that Unders have been this popular," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "You can't arbitrarily think that Over money is going to come in like we have been in years past. There's not a lot of weather issues this week, yet there's still a lot of totals at 43 or lower. That's not been the way it's been the last few years. It's just something you have to adjust to, if there are any trends or any changes in how the games are going, you have to be wary to that."
Buffalo at Tampa Bay could be a Super Bowl 56 preview between Josh Allen and Tom Brady and has the highest total on the board at 53.5 points. That hasn't stopped bettors from putting 76 percent of bets on the Over and 64 percent of money. The weather will be beautiful in Tampa, with the Bucs ranking No. 1 in scoring offense (31.4 ppg) and the Bills fifth (28.0 ppg).
"A lot of times you get marquee games with totals that high, it takes a lot to get Over if the target is the mid-50s," Pullen said. "When you have those two extremes, either high or low, you need a lot working your way to hit those targets. Buffalo's offense has been inconsistent, they've looked great and they've looked horrible. I think you're going to see a better performance from Buffalo since it's such a huge game for them, and the Buccaneers offense just has so many weapons."
It's not as easy to explain the double-Over lean on 48.5 points in 49ers-Bengals with 64 percent of the tickets and 71 percent of the money. The Over has hit in five of Cincinnati's past six games after going Under in five of the first six.
The biggest Under lean is on 42 points between the Falcons and Panthers from Charlotte, with 99 percent of the money and 87 percent of tickets. Atlanta is allowing 27.7 points per game, which is 31st in the league, but the Under has hit in four straight Falcons games because they are averaging just 10.3 points in that span.
"The Panthers offense is a bit of a mess," Pullen said. "[Christian] McCaffrey has been out, the quarterback play has been iffy and their offensive coordinator was just fired. The Falcons, that offense is not as prolific as it has been in recent years. It's not a surprise to see this game have such heavy action toward the Under."
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