NFL Week 13 survivor pool picks: How to approach Thanksgiving slate, plus rankings for every format

Week 12 ended up being a breeze for most people still alive in NFL survivor pools, with the potential exception of anyone who tried to take a shot usually a bad team in a potentially good matchup with the Raiders facing Shedeur Sanders in his first career start. Unfortunately for those people, Las Vegas found itself in a 14-0 hole almost immediately and never came close to digging itself out against one of the league's best defenses.

Week 13 brings about the first double gameweek for those in 20-week formats as the Thanksgiving and Black Friday matchups are set aside in a standalone slate that must be survived before getting to the main slate on Sunday and Monday. For participants in those pools, it's key to save teams that can be used on the standalone holiday slates or face instant elimination. You'll see grouping around the favorites in those matchups, and in larger pools, some employ a strategy of fading those consensus picks and trying to advance while eliminating a significant chunk of the remaining pool at the same time.

In Circa Survivor's 20-week format, 82.2% of participants have saved the Eagles until this point, and they should be the consensus play on the holiday slate, so the 67.3% of survivors that haven't used the Bears will have to decide if they want to risk the upset. Just 33.3% of survivors kept the Ravens until this point, so the other big favorite on the slate should see far less usage than the Eagles. The Chiefs have 53.7% availability but are on the road against a surging Cowboys team, and I expect we'll see a fair bit of representation from the 74.8% of survivors who still have Dallas. The first Thanksgiving game will likely drag far behind the other three with both the Lions (17.9%) and Packers (8%) having the least availability among the eight available teams. 

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We'll break down our preferred approach to the two separate gameweeks in this holiday weekend of football, plus what we're thinking for 18-week formats that combine all 16 games into one slate like usual. 

Why listen to me? I'm 718-623-37 and up more than 32 units on ATS picks over the last eight years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 464-379-27 (55%) over the last 10 years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While survivor doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.

In Week 13, I've ranked several options for both small pool and large pool participants, weighing whether it's worth using what might be the consensus play or digging a little deeper into the options.

So which NFL survivor picks should you make for the 2025 NFL season, and which Week 13 pick could separate you from the pack? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool 2025 strategy from the expert who's 718-623-37 on ATS picks from 2017 to 2024, returning more than 32 units!

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