A rough week in both contests will likely end any chance I had of cashing in either, and one of the big culprits is my inability to pick AFC North divisional games. I had both the Browns and Steelers on both cards last week and neither came in despite us having closing line value on both, which has been the story of the last two months or so for my picks. The Browns pick in particular was brutal, as that had all the makings of a low-scoring defensive battle typical for the division that ended by a three-point margin, only for Baltimore to tack on a field goal in the final minute. There's another AFC North battle on the schedule this week between the Ravens and Steelers, but don't worry, I'm keeping it far away from my best bets.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm shaking off a quarterback injury to back a strong team coming off a loss: the Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 at the New York Jets.
Jalen Hurts made it sound like he'd be good to go for this game early in the week, but he ultimately received a questionable tag after being limited all week with an ankle injury. For a QB as successful with his legs as Hurts, that could be a huge deal even if he plays.
But this is the Jets defense we're talking about. They've given up the most points per drive in the league and allowed a score on the highest percentage of their drives. And teams that aren't the Texans can have success moving the ball against the Jets whether they want to do it via the run or the pass. They also don't create turnovers, so it would be shocking if Hurts had another game filled with giving the ball to the other team.
In terms of the contest, I also don't know that the Eagles will be that popular of a pick with Hurts' status up in the air and the Jets coming off a win. But the Eagles defense should shut down Zach Wilson, who still didn't look great in the win over Houston. I had actually hoped Hurts would be ruled out on the final injury report and I could lay the points with Gardner Minshew, who is good enough to beat the Jets by a touchdown if he started but would've given us a much better line in the market as people hopped on the Jets. Either way, I like the Eagles to cover and will play them in both contests this week, even though I have to lay seven points in the Circa Sports Million.
Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.
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