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    NFL Week 13 picks: Broncos cover again, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas contest expert

    R.J. White shares his five Vegas contest picks after hitting on over 56% of his contest plays over the last eight years.
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    Only the Texans prevented us from putting together a 5-0 week, which is doubly unfortunate as they were the last team included in our set of best bets and a winner (the Falcons) was the first one out. Our top pick was the Broncos, as I believed that spread was way off with the market being far too optimistic on the Cleveland offense going on the road. Those two teams that played key roles in building our top five last week will do so again, which we'll get into in a minute.

    With the 4-1 week, we're now tied for 138th out of more than 5,200 entries in the Circa Million, just one point out of the cash line, two points away from the top 50 and 3.5 points away from the top 10. With the expectation the top performers in the contest will experience some regression, which we'll have to attempt to stave off ourselves, I believe averaging 3-2 the rest of the way will get us above the cash line. Any better could put us in line for a serious payday, while any worse puts us in danger of finishing with nothing.

    I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

    If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing my top pick from last week again: the Denver Broncos +3.5 at the Houston Texans.

    This is a much different matchup for the Broncos, who have been thriving off turnovers during their last four games. The Texans have the second lowest interception rate on the season (behind the Broncos themselves), and they went back to avoiding any turnovers last week after posting three in two straight weeks. But they've also had trouble pulling away from teams in recent weeks, with their only win by more than three points in their last five matchups being a five-point win over a bad Cardinals team at home. Their defense is 24th in yards per play and 28th in yards per pass, and the Broncos should be able to score on this unit with Russell Wilson playing well, especially as they managed three drives of 70-plus yards against the elite Cleveland defense a week ago. The Broncos defense may also have a little easier of a time with Tytus Howard missing from the offensive line and the Texans dealing with multiple injuries in their receiving corps. I believe this line should be on the other side of 3, so I'm happy getting the hook here.

    Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 13.

    So which teams should you back in Week 13? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 13, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!

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    R.J. WhiteSuper Stat Geek

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