NFL Week 11 Vegas contest picks: Top spread selections from Las Vegas contest expert

Week 10 in the NFL went very well for many contest players – against the spread, that is. Not so much as far as Survivor contests.

At this point in the season, availability becomes a big part of the Survivor puzzle. We wrote about it here last week – all the big Week 10 favorites (Seahawks, Broncos, Lions, Bills, Colts) had already been used by a large percentage of the field. As a result, here in Las Vegas, in both Circa Survivor and the $5K SuperSurvivor at Westgate, the Carolina Panthers, of all teams, emerged as one of the most popular selections in Week 10. Amazing. To think there are millions of dollars on the line and this team is who you are hitching your wagon to? 

Sure enough, it did not end well as the New Orleans Saints took out roughly 25% of remaining Survivor entries. Also one of the more popular selections, the Buffalo Bills, sent many home packing with their completely lackluster loss at Miami. The Panthers and Bills combined to eliminate over 40% of the remaining entries in Circa Survivor and reduced a remaining 16 SuperSurvivor entries in half to just eight heading into Week 11 at Westgate.

Against the point spread, it was a different story in Week 10. The top-five consensus plays in the SuperContest went 3-2 and 4-1 in Circa Sports Million. It was bittersweet for our team, the Las Vegas Football Contest Show (www.FootballContestShow.com) because despite our efforts to go contrarian, and having done so successfully, our 4-1 card in Circa Sports Million was simply status quo. We were nearly perfect in taking very unpopular sides and winning with those sides, but again, the majority of the contest players went 4-1 – no matter what games they chose. So, a great effort but not necessarily the result one would expect. But hey, who's complaining about hitting 80%? Not us.

It is interesting analyzing the two different types of contests, isn't it? Survivor appears easier, just picking a team to win a game with a massive payout waiting in the wings. But if you have just one bad week, one bad game – your season is finished. When playing in the ATS contests, one is never really out of it, especially with the in-season contests running simultaneously every 3-4 weeks. Our Football Contest Show team did have an awful week not long ago – we went 0-5 – but our season is not over as it would be comparatively in Survivor, and with eight weeks of runway left, who knows? we just might find ourselves in the cash one way or another.

So which teams have strong value on the spread for Week 11... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 11, all from Las Vegas contest expert Brady Kannon!