NFL Week 11 picks: Back the Packers, and more against the spread best bets from Las Vegas contest expert
R.J. White shares his five Vegas contest picks after hitting on over 56% of his contest plays over the last eight years.
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We're back in form. coming off a 4-1 week where the only loss was a disappointing collapse by the Ravens involving a deflected pick-six to completely change the course of the game. That puts us at 31-19 through 10 weeks, averaging just over three correct picks out of five per week. That's just where you want to be in the big Vegas contests, and that score puts us tied for 245th out of more than 5,200 participants in Circa Million. We'll see if we can hit our baseline of another 3-2 week with this slate, which features several huge favorites.
The Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites on the road, while the 49ers are 11.5-point favorites at home. Both those teams have quick turnarounds to play on Thanksgiving, as do two other teams that had their spreads come down a bit from earlier in the week in the Lions and Commanders. The last double-digit favorite is the Dolphins, who also have a short week with the league's first ever Black Friday game. It'll be interesting to see which teams are able to maintain focus this week against presumed pushovers with a quick turnaround on a holiday week ahead.
I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL against-the-spread expert over the last six years, going 535-450-30 against the spread to put me up more than 35 units on those picks at SportsLine since 2017. I've also delivered a 56.5% hit rate on my Vegas contest picks over the last eight seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number can near double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm backing one team that's also dealing with a short week ahead: the Green Bay Packers +3 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers.
While the quick turnaround to play on the road for the Packers isn't ideal, they don't have the luxury of looking ahead as home underdogs in this matchup. Jordan Love threw two backbreaking interceptions late last week, but they've been able to keep things close in most games this year, including in every road matchup. That tells me they should be competitive in this game against a Chargers team that I believe is being wildly overrated by the market.
Every year we expect big things from the Chargers thanks to the talent they have on both sides of the ball, and every year they disappoint. This year hasn't been any different, as they bring a 4-5 record on the road for this game against a Packers defense that should be healthier than it was last week, with only Rudy Ford a complete non-participant in practice as of Thursday. The Chargers have been reduced to a one-receiver offense due to injury, and Keenan Allen is managing his own shoulder injury that might reduce his effectiveness in this game.
I see the Packers defense doing a good job of slowing down the Chargers offense at home, and I see Jordan Love able to move the ball enough against a poor Chargers defense to put some points on the board. For this line to make sense, the Chargers have to be an above-average team, or the Packers have to be at the level of a team like the Panthers near the bottom of the league. I don't think either apply, so I'm comfortable throwing the Packers into my contest picks as a best bet.
Get the rest of my Vegas contest picks below, along with my large-format survivor pool play for Week 11.
So which teams should you back in Week 11? Which NFL survivor pool pick should you make? And which underdogs could win outright?... Join SportsLine right now to see who you should back in Week 11, all from the expert who has crushed the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament!
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