For the second straight week, we got incredible line value ahead of quarterback injury news that was sure to move the line. But just like the Dak Prescott news not mattering to the Vikings two weeks ago, the 49ers were unable to win against a backup quarterback last week after Kyler Murray was ruled out. The Texans-Dolphins game also featured a swap of quarterbacks on each side, with Houston finally getting Tyrod Taylor back and Miami surprisingly starting Jacoby Brissett due to an injury to Tua Tagovailoa. Again, it did not matter at all to the side with the line value. So this week, forget about trying to play the line value game with the Cardinals again as Kyler Murray is a gametime decision. It doesn't look like it matters who is playing QBs for these teams.

I've been SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. I've also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on my SuperContest picks over the last six seasons, which is exactly what you're getting below. And that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.

If you're a SportsLine subscriber, you can get all my picks, which in a typical NFL week number in the double digits, at the same time as I make them by downloading the app and signing up for alerts on my expert page. That's crucial, as you might not have access to the same lines from the Las Vegas contests, which don't move after they're posted mid-week. This week, I'm jumping on a team that looks like the worst in football: the Detroit Lions +8.5 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you the Lions are a better team than their record indicates. Clearly, this team deserves to be picking in the top three of the draft next year. But once you get later into the season with a winless team, you can be sure their lines are going to be inflated as the betting public refuses to believe they're ever going to win. And I particularly like a team like that coming out of a bye, where they've had to sit with that big zero in the win column for an entire week before getting back on the practice field.

And keep in mind that as bad as the Lions have looked, they're actually 4-4 ATS on the year. They managed a wild cover in Week 1 after their line jumped to +9.5, they nearly beat the Ravens and Vikings as 'dogs of more than a touchdown, and they pulled out all the stops to stay relatively close to the Rams in a nine-point loss. And they may have gotten a cover in Week 2 against the Packers if not for bad weather wrecking any chance Jared Goff had to be effective in the second half (remember, they held a halftime lead in that game). Again, I'm not saying they're secretly a solid team, but they're also not one of the worst teams we've seen in the last decade or anything.

Yet I think the line might be calling them one of the worst teams of the last decade. How else do you justify this awful Steelers offense laying more than a touchdown in an NFL game? Pittsburgh needed massive help from the officials to pull out a win against a Bears team that hasn't looked great this year either, managing just 280 yards of offense in that win while giving up 414 yards to Justin Fields and Co. It feels like the Lions can make a couple trips to the end zone in this game, while the Steelers shouldn't just be counted on to score a ton of points regardless of the matchup. This feels like one of the Lions' close losses where it's ugly for three quarters and the Steelers gut out a win without covering. 

Get the rest of my SuperContest picks and my Circa Million picks below.

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