NFL Week 1 Jaguars vs. Colts odds, trends: Jacksonville taking most spread action in first week, Indianapolis winless in openers since 2013

Believe it or not, NFL teams start reporting to training camps this week, and the Hall of Fame Game preseason opener will be played in a little more than two weeks. Week 1 odds at BetMGM have been out since the regular-season schedule was released on May 11, and no team is taking more against-the-spread action than the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are -3.5 at Indianapolis, with a whopping 86% of bets for the Sept. 10 game going their way.

This is only the third time that Jacksonville has been a favorite in Indy, and the first time since October 2017. The Jaguars lost both games outright. It also marks only the third time this decade that the Jags have been at least 3.5-point road favorites in a regular-season game, and both of the first two instances were in Houston. Jacksonville lost outright in 2021 and won 31-3 in Week 17 last season. 

The only way the Jaguars would be underdogs in Indy is if quarterback Trevor Lawrence was injured before then, as his backup is journeyman CJ Beathard. Lawrence struggled early last season but clearly got acclimated to first-year coach Doug Pederson's offense by midseason, as the former Clemson star threw 15 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in the final nine regular-season games.

Pederson expects an even bigger leap in Year 3 with Lawrence finally having some coaching consistency following the Urban Meyer disaster in his rookie season. Lawrence is +1400 to win NFL MVP, which no Jaguars player has come close to doing. The former No. 1 overall pick is given season Over/Under win totals of 3975.5 passing yards and 26.5 TDs.

Do note that Lawrence's blind side protector, left tackle Cam Robinson, will miss the first four games of the regular season for violating the league's performance enhancing drug policy. Walker Little is expected to start on the left side while Robinson is out and rookie Anton Harrison, a first-round pick out of Oklahoma, will likely take the right tackle spot.

Jacksonville is just 5-17 all-time in Indianapolis, with the Colts winning the last five meetings there. Indy was pretty bad last year but beat the visiting Jags 34-27 in Week 6. Matt Ryan had his best game as a Colt, throwing for 389 yards and three scores, including the game-winning 32-yard TD pass to Alec Pierce with 17 seconds left. Ryan has since departed.

Former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen will make his head coaching debut in Week 1, presumably with rookie QB Anthony Richardson making his first NFL start under center. The No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft is extremely raw, however, and will have to beat out veteran and former Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew in camp. Richardson is a +600 third favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The Jaguars are 14-14 straight up all-time in Week 1 games and 16-11-1 ATS, but 0-2 SU/ATS under Lawrence. Indianapolis is 13-20-1 SU in Week 1 and 12-20-2 ATS. The Colts haven't won an opener since 2013 -- they tied last year in Houston as 7-point favorites -- or covered the spread in one since 2014. 

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