NFL Survivor Pool Week 4 strategy: Save the Eagles, and breaking down every worthy option
Which team should you use in your survivor pools in Week 4? We analyze the remaining schedule and share the best options.
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First, the good: Last week we told you to avoid using the Cowboys against the Cardinals, and those who took that advice weren't eliminated when Dallas came out flat in Arizona and lost handily. Now, the bad: Our top two suggestions of the week both lost, with the Jaguars and Ravens eliminating a massive chunk of players in survivor pools around the country. More than 40% of the remaining entrants in the Circa Survivor field tapped the Jaguars to get them to Week 4, including me. Throw in the Ravens and Cowboys, and those three teams eliminated more than 56% of the field. It was one of those weeks that come up every year that decimates a survivor pool, and you have to have some luck to avoid them by zagging at the right time.
Which did exactly that in the DraftKings survivor pool, where you only have to worry about 18 gameweeks instead of 20. In that format, we said the Chiefs are a solid third option since you don't need to save them for the standalone Christmas Day slate. We locked that in on one of our two survivor cards in that competition and survived. Now we turn to Week 4 and face another decision about whether to make the obvious play or save that team for later in the year, like we tried to do by going with the Jaguars as our top pick last week.
When looking at your options for Week 4, it's important to project out the rest of the schedule (hence the point of this weekly column). It's also important to know the format of your pool, as Circa Survivor adds two standalone slates for Thanksgiving and Christmas. In that format, or if you survived by using the Chiefs last week, I would avoid using the Eagles in their matchup with the Commanders.
That's not to say I think the Eagles are in serious danger of losing that game. We saw how Washington competed in Week 3 once the quality of their opponent rose from average to awesome, and Philadelphia is definitely among the elite teams in the league. The problem with using them is that they are the other clear Christmas Day option along with the Chiefs when they host the Giants at home. My overall strategy in 20-week formats was to save both and then use Philly against Arizona in Week 17 if we didn't need them for the Christmas game. In 18-week formats, I think you still want to use one of those two teams in Week 16 as the rest of the schedule features a lot of unappealing options otherwise. We burned the Chiefs last week with the intent to hold on to the Eagles for that Week 16 game, and we're going to stick to the strategy this week and not use Philly against the Commanders.
Why listen to me? Well, I was 535-450-30 (+3532) on ATS picks over the last six years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 376-290-24 (56.5%) over the last eight years in the Westgate SuperContest. While this doesn't involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I've developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we'll be in the best position to outlast the competition.
What are the best options to use in survivor pools in Week 4? And which teams should be saved to use later in the season? ... Join SportsLine right now to see NFL Survivor Pool strategy from the expert who's 535-450-30 on ATS picks from 2017-22, returning $3,532 to $100 players!
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