NBA projections: Who got the better of Lakers-Nets trade?
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has come up with revised projections for the fortunes of the Lakers, Nets, Hornets and Hawks following their trades Tuesday. His simulations results might surprise you.
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SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh sees the Los Angeles Lakers as the clear winners in the trade Tuesday in which they acquired center Brook Lopez from the New Jersey Nets.
Los Angeles sent point guard D'Angelo Russell, the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft, and center Timofey Mozgov to New Jersey in exchange for Lopez and the No. 27 pick in Thursday's draft.
The deal will help the Lakers clear salary-cap space because Mozgov is due $48 million over the next three years. They will pay the 29-year-old Lopez $22.6 million in the final year of his contract, opening cap room for next summer.
Oh's SportsLine Projection Model sees the Lakers improving their win total to 34 from a projected 28.6 with the addition of Lopez. It also sees their playoff chances going from 0.1 percent to 4.1 percent.
Conversely, the Nets saw their win projection drop from 20.2 to 17.7, with no improvement in their playoff chances (0.1 percent).
"I don't think Brook Lopez is that great, but he will have a huge positive impact on the Lakers," Oh said. "There was also some addition by subtraction without D'Aneglo Russell."
The 7-foot Lopez averaged 20.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists last season. Russell averaged 15.6 points, 4.0 assists and 3.5 rebounds for the Lakers.
Oh's simulation data also suggests the Charlotte Hornets got the better of their trade with the Atlanta Hawks in which they acquired well-traveled center Dwight Howard.
Charlotte sent guard Marco Belinelli, center Miles Plumlee and the No. 41 pick in the draft for Howard and the No. 31 overall pick.
The SportsLine Projection Model sees the Hornets improving rapidly because of the trade, going from a 32.2 percent chance to reach the playoffs to 67.2 percent, with an increased win total from 37.8 to 41.4.
Conversely, Oh's projections have the Hawks dropping their playoff probability from 79.3 to 37.3 percent and a reduction in wins from 43 to 38.2.Â
"In this case, the trade impact is even more significant because these teams are in a pack of Eastern Conference clubs projected for 38-43 wins," Oh said.
