The rebuilding Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds open a series at Great American Ball Park tonight, and we are going to have a free MLB pick on it because the Nationals are trotting out arguably the worst starting pitcher in the majors in 23-year-old rookie Joan Adon (1-8, 6.08 ERA). Only one other pitcher has been a worse bet in MLB this year. The Reds are -135 at Caesars Sportsbook. (See tickets at StubHub)
If you had bet $100 on every Nationals game that Adon started, you would be down $819; the lone pitcher worse is teammate Patrick Corbin, who been -$913 in his 11 starts. Corbin is scheduled to start Sunday's series finale in Cincinnati. Conversely, the most profitable pitcher in MLB is Oakland's Paul Blackburn at +$894.
Adon is coming off perhaps his best start of the year, allowing no earned runs and six hits over six innings at home against Colorado – which is one of the worst offensive teams in the majors away from home, so take that with a grain of salt. The Nats had to use six relievers in Wednesday's loss at the Mets so they need some distance tonight from Adon, who has never faced Cincinnati.
Since a horrific 3-22 start, the Reds' 14-10 record since May 7 is tied for the sixth-best in the majors and third-best in the National League. Cincinnati was 0-7-1 in its first eight series of the season and is 4-1-3 in their last eight series. It' not clear whether outfielder Tommy Pham (.233, five HR, 17 RBIs) will be in the lineup tonight. He was scratched from the past two in Boston with left calf discomfort. He just came off suspension for that infamous Fantasy Football slap of the Giants' Joc Pederson last Friday.
It's rookie right-hander Graham Ashcraft (1-0, 1.69 ERA) on the bump for the Reds in his third big-league start. Perhaps his early success isn't a fluke as in seven starts this year at Triple-A before being called up, he had a 3-1 record and 1.65 ERA. In his minor-league career, Ashcraft allowed just six HRs in 197.1 innings.
Thursday is the first meeting of the season between the teams; the Reds won the series last year (5-2) for the first time since 2015.
Free MLB pick: Reds -135
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