Monday Night Football picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Eagles vs. Commanders

At some point the Eagles will suffer regression. They aren't going to win every game. They aren't going to come away with a positive takeaway margin every week.

That stuff is cyclical. They will move towards the mean. It' just a matter of when. Which begs the question -- will it happen Monday night against a divisional opponent that has been sneaky good lately (especially at covering)? Well, I'm not sure the Eagles lose their first game of the season in this spot at home in primetime, but this line also looks a bit bloated to me.

Commanders at Eagles

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Spread: Commanders +11

The Eagles covered this number when they met earlier this season, but that was way back in Week 3 before the Commandos made a quarterback change and before their defense rounded into form. The Eagles' lack of second-half pop (just a plus-1 second-half scoring differential despite that perfect record) gives me pause and they struggle to prevent the back-door cover. This is just too many points for me. Washington did well to mitigate the Eagles' dynamic running game in the first meeting, and their last five games have been decided by five points or fewer. I wouldn't be shocked if that was the case here too. The Commanders have had a second-half lead at some point in each of their last five games.

Game Total: Under 43.5

With Washington's improved defensive output (a top-three pressure rate and third-down defense and rushing defense) have come a slew of Unders in six of the last seven games. I'm not sure the Commandos get to their total of 17 points or the Eagles get to theirs (28). I could certainly see something like 24-16. The Eagles are overdue for some turnovers, which I see mitigating their scoring total. The Eagles will give Washington some issues at the line of scrimmage and you simply can't pass the ball downfield on their secondary beyond dink-and-dunk stuff, which also makes me lean under here.

Same-Game Parlay (+700)

• Under 43.5
• Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TDs
• Taylor Heinicke Longest Pass Under 33.5 Yards

Player Props

DeVonta Smith Smith TD (+165)

The Commanders were so concerned with AJ Brown crushing them in the first meeting that it ended up working well in Smith's favor. Smith got a big 12 targets and caught eight of them for 169 yards and a score.

Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TDs

We have documented how well Washington dealt with the Eagles run game the first time out, but top receivers give them fits and the Eagles have two of them, and Hurts threw for three TDs in that game. He will have some favorable matchups to pick from.

Taylor Heinecke Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Heinecke is going to be under duress and is adroit enough to make plays with his legs. He has gone Over this total each of the last two games and this element of extending plays – since Carson Wentz was benched – is something I expect the coaching staff to embrace.

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