I don't know what to make of this Monday Night Football game, other than that I suspect it goes Under. And I wish they could flex it out.

There are so many conflicted trends at play. Tampa is 1-7-1 in its last nine against the spread, while the Saints have yet to cover on the road all season long. Andy Dalton is terrible in primetime. Tom Brady is great in primetime but has been pedestrian-at-best when facing the Saints since he joined the Buccaneers. Neither team has been able to maintain quality play for more than a week or two. It's been sporadic for Tampa, and even less than that for New Orleans.

Yet this game will have huge ramifications on the NFC South title. Go figure.

This isn't my cup of tea, and both of these teams have given me fits from an investment standpoint this season. But here's my best read on the game, for what it's worth.

Saints at Buccaneers

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Game Total: Under 40.5

I kind of actually like this. Neither offense has an identity right now -- the Saints can't even really run the ball anymore. Neither team scores points without significant effort. Of course, a Dalton pick-six or two makes me concerned it could still go Over. Weird stuff tends to happen when these teams play. But the Bucs are 9-2 to the Under this season and Tampa Bay has failed to average even 13 points per game since Week 9. The Bucs have wanted to run the ball more lately, which also plays to the Under. This is the year of the Under and divisional games in particular have had a flair for going Under. In this day and age, this total isn't nearly as low as some we have become accustomed to seeing.

Spread: Saints +3.5

I am taking the hook. That's it. That's all. If you made me play this from a side perspective, I'd just take that half-point and bank on more field goals than touchdowns. Sure, the Bucs beat the Saints by 10 in New Orleans in Week 2, but they got three picks from Jameis Winston in that one, so I'm not sure how much of that applies here.

Same Game Parlay (+1750)

• Under 40.5
• Rachaad White Anytime TD
• Wil Lutz Over 6.5 Kicking Points

Player Props

Rachaad White Anytime TD (+170)

It certainly feels like this is becoming White's offense. We know how much Tom Brady loves his air backs, and getting this rookie into space and letting him catch or run seems to be one of few things the Bucs have going for them. Leonard Fournette is cooked. The downfield passing game hasn't taken off this season. There should be plenty of volume for White, between the 20s and in the red zone.

Tom Brady Under 273.5 Passing Yards (-139)

Brady couldn't get to 200 in the first meeting. Todd Bowles is an uber-conservative head coach. He will want the ball on the ground in this game and he'll probably keep punting from plus territory (which is another reason I like the Under).

Wil Lutz Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-103)

This is going to be a field-goal fest. I see three in Lutz's future. He's a quality kicker in a broken offense.

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