Monday Night Football picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Chargers vs. Broncos

Another primetime game. Another chance for the dynamic duo of Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson to wow the nation with their offensive wizardry. Or, you know, maybe not.

Either way, the Broncos are back on America's television sets and trying not to commit another footballing atrocity, with the Chargers on the opposite sideline this time. The Chargers have their fair share of coaching issues and game-day management stuff to get cleaned up. They haven't been the smoothest operation, either. But it's got to be better than Broncos-Seahawks, Broncos-49ers and Broncos-Colts, right? I mean some regression to the mean in terms of watchable football has to be in order… right?

This isn't a game in which I really love either side. The spread is not super compelling to me. But I have looked at the totals all week and I have a very strong lean on that and some props that I like as well. So here goes:

Broncos at Chargers

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Spread: Broncos +4.5

Getting away from home is probably a good thing for the Broncos after all the booing they have been subjected to thus far. Having Russell Wilson on the injury report is never a good thing, and they are now down a left tackle on top of their other key injuries. At some point, however, there has to be some positive regression in the red zone and they'll actually finish a drive with a touchdown. The Broncos do connect on a lot of big plays and flipping field position will be big. If they opt to get Russ running a bit more and go with more RPO stuff, there is a chance to gash this defensive unit on the ground. Since I am going Under, and thinking this will be a grind rather than a shootout, I'll go ahead and take the points I suppose.

Game Total: Under 45.5

This had been pretty steady all week, but I thought it might drop some given the fact the Broncos can't score (15 points per game) and the Chargers can't really stop anyone. I anticipate a fairly ugly divisional match up. The Denver defense has been excellent and I anticipate a strong game plan against Justin Herbert and a Chargers offense that has been without some key parts. They are yielding the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL – Los Angeles has the second-most – and have a true shutdown corner to take away a good chunk of the field. The Under is 4-1 in Broncos games this season. The L.A. run defense is an abomination -- all the more reason for the Broncos to play a ball-control ground game. The Chargers have leaned heavily into running back Austin Ekeler the past two weeks and finally have him unlocked; I anticipate a heavy workload for him, too, which shortens the game, reduces the number of possessions and has me at the Under.

Same-Game Parlay (+600)

• Under 45.5
• Russell Wilson Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
• Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 Field Goals

Player Props

Austin Ekeler Over 4.5 Receptions (+114)

Ekeler is averaging more than six targets per game and has been Over this total in three of the last four games. I see a lot of safety valves, check-downs and screens in the game plan here against a team that can generate ample pressure. His timeshare and opportunities to impact the game have been on a major upswing in the last two weeks and I don't see that changing in a vital divisional game.

Russell Wilson Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-121)

There is a lot of chatter about why Russ isn't using his legs more. I anticipate he gets a few more RPO looks or option opportunities against this opponent that is so brutal against the run. Given the injuries at running back and to the offensive line, I see this being a bigger part of the game plan. And with there being concerns about his arm now, all the more reason to activate the legs. Wilson has been going Over these totals lately, regardless. He has exceeded 17 yards in each of his last three games and 22 or more in the last two with four carries in each. No one is going to be putting a spy on him at this point. He'll have ample to chance to take off, whether he's pressured or not.

Russell Wilson Anytime TD (+390)

Did I mention how pathetic the Broncos red zone offense has been with three touchdowns in 14 attempts? Well one of those conversions was on Wilson's only goal-to-go rush of the season, a 3-yard TD rush against the Raiders. It's time to pull out all the stops. For this much value, I'll throw a little sprinkle on this calculated risk.

Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 FG (-119)

The Broncos have the best red zone defense in the NFL in terms of TD percentage allowed. You'll see a lot of settling for three against Denver. The Chargers will be able to get within range on numerous occasions. It should be a perfect night for kicking! That's primetime NFL football!

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