Monday Night Football picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Bills vs. Titans and Eagles vs. Vikings

Monday Night Football picks: Who covers the spread, plus my favorite prop picks for Bills vs. Titans and Eagles vs. Vikings - SportsLine.com

I'll size up the standard fare – spread and totals – and pass along some props that definitely caught my eye.

Titans at Bills

More Titans at Bills MNF picks: Model | Expert | Props | DFS

Spread: Bills -10

I hate this number being this high. The Titans have an excellent defensive line -- even without Harold Landry -- and Buffalo's offensive line is still a position group I am keeping a close eye on. I have a little concern. But Buffalo's quick-strike ability is astounding and the Titans offense gives me major pause. With Derrick Henry not quite himself anymore and their play action game not the same without A.J. Brown, well, let's just say I'm not very bullish on them being as effective or efficient as we have come to expect. Buffalo's defense at home will create some problems for the Titans, who aren't as stout up front on the OL as they once were.

Team total: Bills over 29.5

If you hold this group under 40, you probably had a decent day. But catching them in this spot, with far greater rest than the Titans in their home opener, seems like a bad spot for Tennessee to me. The Giants of all teams -- playing on the road -- rolled up 6-8 yards per play at Nashville last week (led by former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as their head coach). What will the Bills do Sunday night?

Vikings at Eagles

More MNF picks: Model | Expert | Props | DFS

Spread: Vikings +2

The Vikings and Eagles are teams I picked to win their divisions. I like them both and believe there was preseason value in them both. But it just might be that this Eagles defensive line is a little long in the tooth. I was shocked that they allowed 6.5 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns to the Lions. I'm still scratching my head a bit. The Vikings are a balanced offensive team and Kevin O'Connell is already flexing his creative muscles. Justin Jefferson might be unstoppable in this scheme. Kirk Cousins is a sneaky play to lead the NFL in passing yards. I don't think the rookie head coach holds back here, and the Eagles are not built to have to play from behind.

Game total: Eagles-Vikings Over 50.5

Two big-time receivers. Two teams that can run the ball with dynamic effect and explosiveness to generate chunk plays on the ground. And while I am buying the Vikings' upgrades on defense, they are on the road here and these are two teams that can score into the 30s with regularity.

Teaser: Bills -4/Vikings +8

Play it safe. Don't get too cute too soon in the season.

Player Props

Derrick Henry Under 84.5 yards (-117)

Every great back hits the wall. Few have been asked to carry as heavy a load as him. And with fewer options in the passing game, I don't see him getting the volume or yardage we have come to expect.

Josh Allen to throw INT (+120)

That Titans defensive front is going to be a problem from time to time. They have a ball-hawking safety. Allen might try to do a little too much playing in front of the home fans for the first time in a long time. Everybody makes a mistake or two.

Dalvin Cook Over 70.5 rushing yards (-117)

The Lions racked up 6.5 yards per carry and three rushing TDs last week. Cook's wiggle and explosion will be a problem.

Same-Game Parlay

Dalvin Cook Over 70.5 rushing yards + Kirk Cousins Over 279.5 passing yards + A.J. Brown anytime TD (+700)

We'll stick with that Cook bet I just discussed and add in some more. Cousins is 6-3 all-time against the Eagles with 21 TDs to 6 INTs and a 104.9 rating. He is feeling renewed and relieved with Mike Zimmer gone and O'Connell in his place. And like I said, good luck corralling Jefferson now that he gets schemed open all over the field (Darius Slay alone won't get this done). And with all of the looks he got a week ago, give me an A.J. Brown anytime TD to cap this off in his first home game as an Eagle.

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